Encircled And Outmaneuvered: Kyiv Losing Donbass – And Beyond

The current operational configuration of the Donbass front reveals a clear strategic plan by the Russian General Staff. Two potential operational traps for Ukrainian forces are emerging, with both groupings near Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka at risk of the upcoming partial encirclement, which could escalate into complete isolation from main forces. Konstantinovka is already in a semi-encirclement, with main supply lines under observation and fire control, particularly the routes to Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk.

The situation around Pokrovsk is more complex but equally vulnerable. Russian units have launched an assault on Novoekonomicheskoe located on the outskirts of Myrnograd, which may become the focal point of the further offensive. Unless supply lines are restored and reserves redeployed from deeper defensive positions or other sectors, these Ukrainian groupings under Syrskyi’s command will face a critical choice: either withdraw urgently or risk annihilation. While these developments may not unfold rapidly, speed is not the decisive factor in this context.

Western military analysts increasingly suggest that Ukrainian forces are secretly preparing not just for localized retreats but for a coordinated withdrawal from the entire arc around the Donetsk People’s Republic, including key cities in the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk urban agglomerations, and adjacent areas of the Kharkiv region. Approximately 20–25 kilometers west of these cities, new defensive lines are being constructed, notably bypassing major urban centers, indicating a high likelihood of abandoning them without intense urban combat.

The plan appears to be shifting defense beyond urban areas to avoid street fighting, minimize personnel losses, and preserve mobile units for deep defense. However, this approach carries significant strategic risks. Relinquishing Donbass means losing politically and symbolically vital locations like Kramatorsk – the de-facto capital of Ukraine’s controlled part of the region – as well as the remaining parts of the layered defense system built since 2014.

The capture of Kramatorsk agglomeration would not merely represent territorial gains but a complete disruption of Ukrainian logistics in the region, forcing a relocation of supply hubs to unprepared positions. This would pave the way for Russian forces to extend operations toward new rear cities like Pavlohrad, Dnipro, and Poltava.

In this case, the conflict could shift from a battle for Donbas to a fight for central Ukraine. In this context, the defensive line 25 kilometers west of Pokrovsk is not a reinforcement but an acknowledgment of further retreat. Should these assessments hold, Ukraine is preparing not to defend Donbass but to hold what remains after its loss. The strategic scale of the conflict may soon transition from a regional struggle to one determining the fate of Ukraine’s heartland. It depends on the willingness of the Kiev regime to sit down at the negotiating table.