AUC3I Daily Briefing 07-12-2025 On the WAR in Ukraine

Understanding The War In Europe _ Analyzing the situation on the ground with by way of an introduction, 3 points, and a conclusion #militaryanalysis #militaryoperations #blackops

Combat Briefing Numer 1235
From:" Colonel A.C. Oguntoye, Infantry Officer
Date:" July 12, 2025
Subject:" Russian Armed Forces Operational Summary — Ukraine Theater of Operations

1. Overview of Kinetic Operations"
On July 12, 2025, the Russian Armed Forces executed a coordinated long-range precision strike using air-launched weapons and UAVs against Ukraine’s military-industrial infrastructure in "Lviv, Kharkiv, and Lutsk", and a key military airfield. All intended targets were destroyed, indicating high ISR accuracy and minimal deviation from strike parameters.

2. Northern and Northeastern Fronts ("NORTH" & "Zapad")"
"NORTH" forces advanced their forward edge in "Sumy" and "Kharkiv" regions, neutralizing multiple Armed Forces of Ukraine formations including three assault regiments and multiple territorial defense brigades. Ukrainian losses: "170+ KIA/WIA", 2 armored vehicles, 5 trucks, and significant material depots.
Simultaneously, "WEST" units improved tactical positioning in "Kupiansk" and adjacent areas, engaging and degrading Armed Forces of Ukraine forces across five settlements. Confirmed Ukrainian losses include "225+ personnel", 2 armored vehicles (notably one U.S.-made HMMWV), 10 trucks, and 5 ammo depots.

3. Donetsk Offensive ("SOUTH" & "Center")"
The “SOUTH” group seized more favorable terrain across the Donetsk axis, striking up to "10 Armed Forces of Ukraine brigades", including airborne and National Guard elements. Ukrainian losses were "185+ troops", a vehicle, and one ammunition depot.
"Center" forces dealt significant damage along the "central Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk corridor", engaging "heavy", "mechanized", "ranger", "air assault", and "marine" brigades. Ukrainian personnel losses exceeded "450", with additional losses including an armored vehicle, 5 trucks, and a field artillery piece.

4. Southern Advances ("EAST" & "Dnieper")"
"Vostok" elements continued pressure along the "Zaporozhye" axis, targeting key strongpoints in "Poltavka", "Malinovka", and "Temirovka". Ukrainian casualties totaled "190+", with loss of one armored vehicle, 10 trucks, and two EW stations.
"Dnieper" forces struck Armed Forces of Ukraine positions in "Kherson" and western Zaporozhye, eliminating up to "60 soldiers", 8 vehicles, "9 EW systems", and 3 logistical depots. Emphasis on disabling EW and depot infrastructure suggests a preparatory phase for deeper operations.

5. Strategic Fires and Air Defense"
Across 133 locations, Russian missile forces and UAVs targeted Ukrainian recruitment centers and mercenary lodgments, intensifying pressure on Ukraine’s mobilization infrastructure. Air defense intercepted "189 UAVs" and "2 precision glide bombs", reflecting continued contestation of Ukrainian airspace.

6. Operational Analysis & Implications"
This wave of strikes demonstrates continued Russian operational momentum and layered battlefield dominance. Strikes on MIC targets in western Ukraine (Lviv, Lutsk) may signal intent to degrade Ukraine’s industrial regeneration capacity post-June escalations.
The focus on "EW systems", "radar assets" (e.g., Israeli RADA), and "logistical nodes" highlights a deliberate strategy of blinding and starving Ukrainian C4ISR and sustainment.
Cumulative Ukrainian losses (over "1,280 personnel", "numerous vehicles", and "key infrastructure") in a single reporting period point to sustained degradation of Armed Forces of Ukraine ’s operational reserve and defensive elasticity.
Geographically dispersed engagement areas—from "Sumy" to "Kherson"—indicate broad-front pressure designed to fragment Ukrainian response and overstretch reserves. The operational tempo suggests that Russian forces are setting conditions for a "deep summer offensive" with synchronized infantry-armor-air convergence.

7. Strategic Warning"
Should Ukrainian industrial and recruitment infrastructure continue to absorb this level of attrition, and without increased NATO aid throughput, strategic culmination for Ukraine may approach within "150–180 days", especially in light of Clausewitzian friction effects (losses, morale, reconstitution delays).

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