S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday July 14, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, July 11, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, July 14, 2025:
Friday Market Recap:
Market Movement: The S&P 500 opened lower due to trade news impacting futures, with a gap down below the S1 pivot point at 6258, hitting an intraday low near 6240. It closed slightly above S1, down 0.33%, showing resilience despite negative sentiment from Europe and lower-than-average volume typical of summer months.
Sentiment and Indicators: Sentiment remains extremely positive at 75, raising concerns about overbought conditions. Technical indicators such as the Williams %R, stochastics, and balance of power show extreme positive readings, though short-term indicators (e.g., StochRSI, CCI 14/20) indicate slight weakness. The market remains above the 20-period moving average, signaling a positive short-term trend.
Trade News Impact: A 35% tariff on Canadian imports and potential 15-20% tariffs on most trading partners, including the EU, drove global futures down. Canada and the EU, being major trading partners, make this news economically significant, though the market didn’t collapse, suggesting optimism persists.
Sector Performance: Semiconductors and mega-cap stocks held up well, while other areas showed weakness. Energy was positive due to rising oil prices, but most sectors ended lower. Growth outperformed value slightly, particularly in large caps.
Other Factors: The 10-year yield rose to 4.42%, nearing the critical 4.5% level, potentially pressuring stocks. The dollar saw a slight bounce but remains in a downtrend. The Treasury budget reported a surprise $27 billion surplus, though long-term debt concerns persist.
Seasonality and Historical Context:
July’s first half is historically positive, but the second half typically underperforms. Historical patterns in July 2023 and 2024 showed significant declines after mid-month highs, raising caution for a potential repeat in 2025, though not guaranteed.
Technical Outlook:
The market is trending positively but showing signs of fatigue, with some indicators (e.g., S&P McClellan Oscillator, bullish percent index) turning negative. The weekly NASDAQ 100 is at a trendline, suggesting potential exhaustion. Small caps weakened, down over 1%, but remain above key moving averages.
Monday Outlook:
Economic Calendar: No major economic reports are scheduled for Monday, leaving the market to react to existing trends or geopolitical developments (e.g., Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine). Earnings season begins later in the week with major banks reporting, which could influence sentiment.
Seasonality: Positive seasonality persists for early July, but options expiration week (57% up, 43% down since 1980) and historical mid-July underperformance and possible pullbacks warrant caution.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 is positive across all timeframes but overbought, with extreme sentiment and technical readings signaling caution.
Tariff news and rising yields are potential risks, though optimism continues to dominate.
Historical July patterns suggest a possible mid-month pullback, but no major decline is predicted—focus remains on observing price action and news for shifts in sentiment.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!