Is a Big Stock Market Drop Coming Soon?

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This is a supplemental video update prepared on Monday, July 14, 2025, discussing current market conditions and a potential seasonal pattern warning.

Key points include:
Market Overview: The S&P, NASDAQ 100, and NYSE have recently hit all-time highs, with the Dow nearing a "golden cross" (50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average). Transports, mid-caps, and small-caps are improving but not yet positive.
Sentiment and Caution: Despite positive market trends, sentiment is very high, prompting a seasonal pattern warning based on historical July-October pullbacks in 2023 and 2024 (around 10% declines). This update is for awareness and not necessarily a prediction.

Approach to Analysis: The SPX Investing Program avoids making forecasts, focusing on technical analysis and critical thinking rather than relying on others’ predictions. There are "Perma-Bulls" (always optimistic) and "Perma-Bears" (always pessimistic). This SPX Investing Program advocates a "Perma-Realist" perspective that adapts to market conditions.

Historical Context: Reference is made to past market lows (e.g., October 2022) and recoveries, noting that the markets rise about 70% of the time long-term, but the 30% downturns can be damaging. Emotional decision-making often leads to poor outcomes.

Indicators: A Mass Index signal on a weekly chart suggests a potential reversal, though current conditions (e.g., not being significantly above the 200-day moving average) differ from 2023 and 2024, reducing the likelihood of an immediate decline.

Philosophy and Program: The SPX Investing Program emphasizes risk management ("don’t lose money") through hedging and disciplined strategies. Daily/Weekly videos, newsletters, podcasts, and courses, are available in the program, which is currently free until September 2025 via Substack.

Takeaway: Independent thinking is encouraged with an awareness of market patterns, and daily monitoring without falling for sensationalist predictions or emotional traps.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!