S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday July 17, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Outlook for Thursday, July 17, 2025
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 experienced a volatile session, closing up 0.32% with below-average volume, indicating low conviction.
The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 approached but did not close at a new high.
Small caps performed well, but semiconductors underperformed. Financials (e.g., Goldman Sachs +0.9%) saw mixed results despite beating earnings expectations, with some "sell the news" reactions.
Economic Data:
PPI: Weaker than expected (unchanged month-over-month vs. +0.2% forecast), hinting at limited tariff impact, so far.
Industrial Production: Stronger at +0.3% (vs. +0.1% expected), signaling economic strength.
Capacity Utilization: Slightly above expectations at 77.6% (vs. 77.4%).
Mortgage Applications: Negative, likely due to rising interest rates.
Market Sentiment and Technicals:
Sentiment remains extremely positive but overextended, with some indicators (e.g., parabolic SAR) turning negative, signaling potential weakness.
Momentum oscillators for the NASDAQ 100 is negative, and the TTM squeeze is declining, reflecting a lack of strong conviction.
The S&P 500 held above key support levels (S2 at 6202) and closed slightly above the daily pivot at 6262.
The VIX spiked intra-day but closed below moving averages, and the bullish percent index is no longer extremely positive but remains negative.
Geopolitical and Policy Factors:
Speculation about President Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell caused a brief market dip, but later reports deemed it unlikely, leading to a rebound.
Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Israel-Syria conflicts, Trump-Netanyahu meetings) could impact markets if they escalate.
The U.S. dollar and interest rates (10-year yield at 4.46%) declined slightly, but rates remain elevated.
Sector and Stock Highlights:
Energy, healthcare, and real estate, recently under pressure, outperformed.
Large-cap tech showed mixed results: Apple (+0.5%), Google (+0.5%), Tesla (+3.5%), Amazon (-1.4%), Meta (-1%), Netflix (-0.79%).
Micro caps are showing signs of a golden cross, indicating potential strength.
Outlook for Thursday, July 17, 2025:
Economic Reports: Initial and continuing jobless claims, retail sales, import/export prices, Philadelphia Fed index, and NAHB housing market index could influence markets.
Geopolitical Risks: Developments involving Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, or other global events may affect sentiment.
Seasonality: The second half of July is historically positive but underperforms the first half, with weaker performance expected in August and September.
Technicals: The market remains positive across all time frames but shows signs of exhaustion. Potential cracks (e.g., negative parabolic SAR, declining momentum) suggest caution.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is trending upward but lacks conviction, with mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties creating volatility. Key support levels held, but technical indicators hint at potential short-term weakness. Investors should monitor upcoming economic reports and global events closely.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!