The Wire - July 18, 2025

//The Wire//2000Z July 18, 2025//
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//BLUF: SITUATION IN SYRIA CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CONCERNS GROW REGARDING LONG-STANDING THREATS TO AMERICAN LIVESTOCK.//

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-International Events-

Syria: The violence continues to escalate as the Druze militias have taken advantage of recent Israeli strikes to make territorial advances in the south. This morning PM Netanyahu pledged support for the Druze, and stated that Syrian government forces will not be allowed to enter the district south of Damascus. Overnight Druze forces seized the city of Suweida, and have claimed to control most of the key terrain throughout the entire region.

Analyst Comment: Though Netanyahu didn't name the district specifically, he probably meant Suwayda, but he could also have meant Daraa (which is an important distinction). Lines on the map have no meaning whatsoever in Syria right now, however Suwayda is the district currently host to the most fighting, mostly between the Druze and various other Islamic-based militias. Daraa is the main district that is currently occupied by Israeli forces, following Israel's invasion of Syria during the fall of the Assad regime. Right now, it looks like Netanyahu is trying to use the Druze to push Jolani's forces out of Suwayda, so as to increase Israel's "buffer zone" eastward, probably all the way to Druze Mountain. On the other hand, this is Syria...the cultural/tribal situation is vastly more complicated than that. The Druze community itself is not as culturally solidified as one might imagine, with younger tribes more closely aligning with Israel, but older Druze communities serving the Assad regime faithfully. Similarly, the fall of the Assad regime immediately spawned hundreds of splinter groups that have formed an even more complicated web of loyalties than before the collapse.

In short, there are no "good guys" in this case; all sides and tribes have committed extremely gruesome violence against each other, so the situation is largely a wash. However, Israel is the main nationstate-level player involved in all of this, and thus seeks to come out on top, regardless of which tribes kill each other. As usual, only time will tell how effective this effort will be. For context, the operational environment in this case is roughly 40% of the total land mass of Israel itself, with the Daraa and Suwayda districts combined being roughly 8,000 km² in size.

-HomeFront-

Midwest: Concern is growing regarding the spread of disease caused by the Asian Longhorned Tick, an invasive species of parasite that has become a problem throughout the United States over the past year. This parasite is known to cause Theileriosis in cattle, which can cause death in a wide array of cases, varying from 3-90%. There is no known treatment or vaccine for this disease, and prevention methods are the only known mitigation tactics that are effective at reducing the spread of this disease.

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Analyst Comments: The concerns regarding the Asian Longhorned Tick are not new by any means, however this topic has gained more traction due to various research projects that are now underway. Oklahoma State University is currently sampling cattle to study how serious the spread of this parasite is, and the University of Georgia is likewise conducting similar research. While it may not sound like a serious threat at the moment, this parasite has the potential to exponentially grow into a major problem since the female tick can lay around 2,000 eggs at a time without mating. As a reminder, this tick was first discovered in the US on a sheep in New Jersey back in 2017, however due to the exponential spread of this parasite, entire herds of cattle are now swarming with these ticks from coast to coast. This has already resulted in a 150% spike in this tick being observed in the state of Pennsylvania, for instance. However now that this parasite is spreading rapidly, serious and well-funded research is only beginning to be undertaken now.

In a more strategic sense, pestilence such as this are a national security concern, with biological threats receiving much more serious scrutiny than in years past. Historically speaking, the "B" in CBRNE threat prevention (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, High-Yield Explosives) has not gotten a lot of attention since the Anthrax years, mostly because the implementation of biological weapons tends to be host to many different challenges that most malign actors are not able to overcome. However, a nationstate can do so easily, and since the COVID years much more attention has been focused on these types of threats, and how the previously-held complacency bias has skewed risk assessments on the threats. A single Chinese student can bring the tiniest gram of wheat blight into the United States quite easily, and (just like the world of drug trafficking) for every one malign actor that gets caught there are probably hundreds that get away. Considering how easy it is to stoke fear on this topic, but also weighing the fact that there isn't nearly as much research in this field as there needs to be, it's rather challenging to accurately assess and mitigate the risks posed by the new era of 5th Generation Warfare that is being waged around the world. Nevertheless, awareness is a critical first step, and being aware of something as seemingly benign as an invasive tick is important for fleshing out other risks as they arise.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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