S&P 500 Weekly Update for July 21 25, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary (July 14–18, 2025)
Outlook for July 21-25
Market Performance (July 14–18):
S&P 500: Up 0.59%, set a new intraday all-time high but not a closing high. Market appears overextended, consolidating sideways above the 20-period moving average.
Dow: Down 0.1%. NASDAQ: Up 1.5%. Small Caps: Up 0.2%, but underperforming.
Volume was below average, typical for summer months. Options expiration on Friday saw average volume.
Modest gains despite earnings volatility. Tech and utilities led, while energy and materials lagged.
Key Observations:
Historical Context: Mid-July has historically seen pullbacks (e.g., 2023: July to October; 2024: about 10% correction). Current charts suggest a tired market, potentially ripe for a pullback.
Inflation & Economic Data:
CPI stronger than expected; PPI weaker, balancing out.
Retail sales up, jobless claims stable (about 1.9M continuing claims), housing starts mixed (strong permits, weaker single-unit homes).
Consumer sentiment slightly up, economy resilient but inflation "sticky."
Interest Rates: 10-year yield at 4.43% (up from 4.42%), below the 4.5% pressure point.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing tensions (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine) and tariff concerns (Trump’s proposed 30% tariffs on EU/Mexico, Russia tariffs). Markets shrugged off tariff news but remain alert to inflation risks.
Fed Policy: Jerome Powell’s speech on July 22 expected to maintain “wait and see” stance. Market anticipates no rate change at July 30 FOMC meeting (95.9% probability), with about 50% expecting a rate cut in September.
Earnings Season: Only 12% of S&P 500 companies reported; 83% beat estimates. Banks (e.g., JPMorgan, Citigroup) mixed, with some sell-offs despite strong earnings. Taiwan Semiconductor boosted chip stocks; Netflix, 3M, and American Express saw selling despite good earnings.
Technical Analysis:
S&P 500 in a weakening but positive trend (ADX declining). NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 strong, small caps and utilities weaker.
Sentiment positive but not extreme (Investors Intelligence at 2.57, near average). VIX below 20, indicating lower fear.
Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, PMO) positive but showing signs of exhaustion. Advance-decline lines near highs but new highs contracting.
Tech outperforms; financials weaker relative to the S&P 500.
Outlook (July 21–25):
Expect continued volatility driven by headlines (Powell’s speech, geopolitical events, tariffs).
Seasonality suggests the second half of July underperforms the first half. Post-election years typically strong, but mid-July pullbacks common.
Key risks: Potential tariff-driven inflation, overextended charts, and historical July/August weakness.
Positive factors: Resilient economy, strong earnings growth (about 9% for S&P 500), and tech sector strength.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive but shows signs of fatigue, with potential for a pullback given historical trends and overextended indicators. Investors should monitor Powell’s speech, tariff developments, and earnings for directional cues.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!