Deep Dive Update for Monday July 21, 2025

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Weekly deep dive video update for Monday, July 21, 2025, various financial charts are analyzed that were not used in daily videos to gain deeper market insights.
Key points include:
VIX Analysis: The Long-Term VIX, a measure of market fear, is below 20, indicating a positive market sentiment as the S&P 500 hits new all-time highs. The VIX has been declining recently, with no extreme momentum readings from RSI or MACD, so related charts are excluded from daily videos unless significant conviction emerges.
Market Correlations and Ratios: The VIX's correlation to the S&P 500 shows low readings, and the VIX is declining faster than bond volatility (MOVE index), which is positive. Small and mid-cap stocks are lagging behind large caps, with micro-caps showing a recent golden cross. The ratio of large caps to small caps shows no strong conviction.
Sentiment and Volatility Indicators: The Ulcer Index is below its moving average, suggesting lower market stress. The advance-decline line for the S&P 500 based on volume is at all-time highs, indicating positive market breadth, though the NYSE advance-decline line shows slight recent underperformance.
Sector and Market Trends: Large-cap growth and momentum stocks are performing well, though momentum stocks are slightly trailing the S&P 500. U.S. stocks lagging international stocks, but the gap is narrowing. The NASDAQ Composite leads with a technical score of 82.9, followed by the NASDAQ 100 (81.8), with small and mid-caps weaker at 42 and 32.9, respectively.
Moving Averages and Trends: The S&P 500 is above all short-term (10-50 periods) and intermediate-term (50-100 periods) moving averages, with all lines trending upward, confirming positive short- and intermediate-term trends. The market is above the 200-day moving average, but an overextension above 10% would raise caution.
Other Indicators: The Connors RSI shows no extreme signals. The S&P 100 outperforming the S&P 500, and a weekly Mass Index signals a potential reversal, though unconfirmed. Bollinger Bands and standard deviation indicate slowing market movement, and the Ichimoku cloud shows a positive trend.
Sector and Economic Insights: Transports and regional banks show improvement but lagging overall. Retail sales were stronger than expected, but the sector underperforming the S&P 500. Inflation concerns are noted as the TIPS-to-bond ratio has been rising slightly, though it remains range-bound. The CRB index is up, but CPI and PPI data were mixed.
Global and Bond Markets: The German DAX is in an uptrend, and U.S. stocks are slightly outperforming German stocks. The 2-year Treasury yield is declining, supporting the S&P 500. Correlations between stocks and bonds are neutral to slightly positive.
Overall, the S&P 500 is showing positive trends with strong large-cap performance, but small and mid-caps are lagging, and inflation concerns warrant monitoring. Watching key support levels, moving averages, and ratios for potential shifts.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yq63ghovFmlBDXRfdpLJPK6dHkqXH9wO/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!