The Wire - July 21, 2025

//The Wire//2100Z July 21, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MAJOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT IN TIBET. ALASKA AIRLINES SUFFERS IT OUTAGE, GROUNDING ALL FLIGHTS SUNDAY EVENING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Central Asia: Over the weekend, Chinese authorities began construction on a major hydroelectric power plant in a remote region of Tibet. Groundbreaking ceremonies were held at a site adjacent to the future Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Power Plant in Nyingchi. This project is scheduled to be completed by 2033, and for comparison will allegedly be roughly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam project.

-HomeFront-

Washington: Sunday evening an IT outage resulted in all Alaska Airlines aircraft being grounded for several hours. Roughly 150 flights were canceled as a result of the outage, and airline representatives have warned of future disruptions due to malfunctioning equipment. So far no cause for the outage has been disclosed, beyond general comments of unspecified equipment failure.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As with most Chinese industrial projects, the scale of the hydroelectric project in Tibet is impressive. However in this case, they are attempting to build the largest hydroelectric power plant in human history...directly in the middle of a region legendary for extreme seismic activity. More broadly however, there are mitigating factors which complicate this seemingly glaring mistake.

As the dam will also be built over a river that flows into India, various concerns are present regarding restricting the flow of water into India. Conversely, since India will be the primary customer of the electricity, these concerns will likely waver over time due to India's extremely poor infrastructure. In short, China knows that India is desperate for electricity, so China is going to dam up a river on the Indian border and use what would have been India's own river to produce electricity to sell back to them. Consequently, since this power plant will be used to provide electricity for export, CCP officials probably don't care as much about the national security risks when/if the plant gets destroyed due to an earthquake or due to combat action.

Considering that this dam can also be used to halt the flow of water into India, this dam highlights the often forgotten detail that the People's Republic of China rarely does anything that does not also have military value. The Yarlung Tsangpo River (which is known as the Brahmaputra River in India) accounts for roughly 7% of all of the freshwater supply in India (at least, according to the Indian government). This means that China can quite literally turn the screws on India, and apply pressure to their BRICS partner as necessary. Indian leadership, only interested in short-term gains (and cheap electricity), have either forgotten that there's no such thing as a free lunch and/or are so desperate to keep their failing electrical grid from outright collapse that they don't care about the potential military impacts that will occur in a decade when the plant comes online.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//