The Wire - July 23, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z July 23, 2025//
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//BLUF: NATIONAL NUCLEAR SECURITY ADMINISTRATION IMPACTED BY SHAREPOINT BREACH. PEACE TALKS RESUME BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA AS US STATE DEPARTMENT AUTHORIZES SALE OF AMERICAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO UKRAINE.//

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-International Events-

Turkey: This morning another round of indirect peace talks between Russia and Ukraine began, with no real headway being made by this afternoon. This marks a return to negotiations after the intensification of the war almost two months ago.

Analyst Comment: So far all sides have stated that expectations are low for any sort of diplomatic progress. However, various teams of negotiators are at the table anyway, which is progress.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This afternoon the State Department approved the sale of roughly $172 million worth of military hardware to Ukraine. This order mostly comprises of missile defense systems, repair tools and parts, trucks, and various other logistical support equipment.

Analyst Comment: The White House has not commented on this development, however remarks from President Trump a few weeks ago indicate the general mood is to continue aid to Ukraine, but instead of outright gifting military hardware, the Pentagon will make Ukraine pay for it using the American tax dollars that were sent to Ukraine over the past few years. While this is slightly more fiscally advantageous, the elephant in the room is that regardless of who's paying for it, the war continues as before.

USA: Fallout from the recent Microsoft SharePoint breach has continued as the scale of this scandal became more clear this morning. The National Nuclear Security Administration was impacted by the breach, with unknown effects. This little-known agency nested within the Department of Energy is responsible for the construction and disposal of nuclear weapons. So far, Microsoft has stated that roughly 8,000 SharePoint servers have been impacted by the zero-day exploit that was discovered a few weeks ago, many of which are servers used by various governmental and defense agencies.

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Analyst Comments: The deterioration of complex (but boring) systems and processes is one of the most catastrophic problems of our modern era that largely goes ignored until something happens. Due to the entire world of nuclear weapons being a highly-sensationalized topic on any given day, this is a good reminder of how civilization decline is a rather serious concern in our modern times. When someone thinks of the administrative management of nuclear weapons, one is likely to be assaulted with a plethora of content regarding the extreme security of our nuclear triad. Consequently, when some sort of problem occurs, the first knee-jerk reaction to a vulnerability is to assume that "surely someone has taken care of this, or mitigated that". And in most cases one would be correct...but not always. Many people have grow accustomed to "zero-fail" systems actually being zero-fail due to the assumption that nothing bad will happen, because nothing bad has happened yet.

Over time, this has resulted in a level of trust being placed on systems that today are not nearly as reliable as they are believed to be. In the case of a highly-dramatized topic such as nuclear weapons, it's quite clear that the actual implementation of nuclear warheads is rather well planned and managed....but Microsoft's SharePoint scandal has proven that maybe the companies that actually build the weapons are not as hardened as we all thought they were. From the mass-firings at the 5th Mission Support Group in 2023 due to failed nuclear readiness inspections, to the NNSA being impacted in undisclosed ways by a SharePoint breach (of all things), the American people are perfectly justified in adopting a "don't trust, always verify" mentality regarding systems that *were* zero-fail decades ago, but might not be so fail-proof anymore.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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