S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday July 25, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, July 24, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, July 25, 2025
Market Performance on July 24:
The S&P 500 opened higher, reached a new all-time high, but gave back most intraday gains due to late-day selling, closing virtually unchanged (+0.07%) on above-average volume.
Semiconductors underperformed tech, a key growth indicator, despite positive AI news from President Trump’s executive orders supporting AI tech exports and data center infrastructure.
Sentiment remains extreme, with the S&P 500 appearing overextended and tired, showing potential vulnerability despite positive trends across all time frames.
The S&P 500, NDX and NASDAQ set new all-time highs, but faces long term overhead resistance at the R1 pivot point (6468).
Mega-cap stocks performed decently, but small and mid-caps underperformed. Growth outperformed value slightly.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term momentum remains positive (StochRSI, Williams %R, CCI 14/20), but some indicators show overextension (RSI 9, slope oscillator).
Intermediate-term indicators (CMB composite, standard deviations chart) are extreme, with mixed signals from momentum oscillators.
Long-term trends remain positive, but the S&P 500 is far from key moving averages (20, 50, 150 periods), signaling potential overextension.
Negative divergences in some indicators (balance of power, TTM squeeze) and a mixed picture in smart money indicators (e.g., Chaiken oscillator negative). McClellan oscillator declining but positive.
Economic and Market Context:
New home sales rose 0.6% month-over-month (727,000 annualized, below 750,000 expected) but fell 6.6% year-over-year. Home prices and interest rates (10-year yield at 4.41%) are pressuring affordability.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 217,000 (below 225,000 expected), indicating a stable employment situation. Continuing claims remain elevated but steady.
S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 (contraction), while Services PMI rose to 55.2, showing strength.
The dollar continues to decline, and oil prices are supported by reduced U.S. production despite OPEC+ plans to increase output.
Earnings surprises are predominantly positive, supporting market prices, but forward P/E ratios (22 for S&P, 17 for equal-weight) indicate mega-cap overvaluation.
Sector and Stock Highlights:
Tech and communication sectors outperformed, while discretionary lagged. Financials underperforming the S&P 500.
Notable stock moves: NVIDIA (+1.73%), Amazon (+1.73%), Microsoft (+0.9%), Google (+1%), Tesla (-8% post-earnings), Apple (down slightly).
Semiconductors improved but underperformed tech, a potential warning sign.
Market Outlook for July 25:
The S&P 500 remains positive on all time frames but shows signs of fatigue and potential for a near-term pullback, especially with seasonality indicating weaker performance in August/September.
Durable goods data is due Friday, with expectations of a weaker reading compared to the prior positive report.
Seasonality suggests a positive bias for July 25 for the Dow and S&P, but the NASDAQ may underperform. The week after options expiration tends to be weaker historically.
Geopolitical risks (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) and domestic developments could impact sentiment.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is trending positively but shows cracks under the surface, with overextended indicators, mixed smart money signals, and underperformance in key sectors including semiconductors and small/mid-caps. Investors should remain cautious, monitor pivot points, and watch for economic data and geopolitical developments that could drive volatility.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!