Signal versus Noise - Episode 5 - Inflation and the Stock Market Bubble

Episode 5 – Inflation trend and stock bubble (July 28rd, 2025)

Participants: Edward Dowd and Carlos Alegria

In this episode we discuss the latest June 2025 CPI (inflation) release and how it is understood in historical context. We discuss seasonal effects in different inflation components and how that can confound inflation reports.
We discuss how the inflation outlook points to disinflation in the months ahead, led by housing disinflation as we explain in our new tenant rent report which points to slowing rent inflation for the coming months, which is a driving force that we expect will bring CPI below 2% in the near future.
In the second part we discuss what appears to be a stock market bubble, which is eerily similar to the .com bubble in 2000. We believe that stocks appear to be overvalued relative to bonds and that complacency has set in.
We also warn of the popping of the stock bubble together with a real estate crisis could lead to a serious recession.
The reports we mention in our session are available on our website and store which can be reached through the links below.
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Phinance Technologies Website: https://phinancetechnologies.com
Free stock market CAPE analysis: https://phinancetechnologies.com/content/2025-2-8%20-%20LinkedIn%20Post-18%20-%20The%20stock%20market%20CAPE%20and%20bond%20yields%20V2.pdf
US Real Estate Reports:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/EconomicReports_USRealEstate.htm
- Cracks in the housing market. New Tenant Rent Analysis. https://payhip.com/b/BfEUA
- The multi-family housing debacle. https://payhip.com/b/z06qS
- The new home sales conundrum. https://payhip.com/b/5Vvw2
US Economy report:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm
Free Resources:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Phitech_resources.htm
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