S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday July 29, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, July 28, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, July 29, 2025:
Monday's Market Performance:
Indices: The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 hit all-time highs, but the broader market showed weakness, closing slightly positive (S&P up 0.02%) on below-average volume.
Market Dynamics: The market opened higher, reached an intraday high at the 6,400 resistance level (a psychological and pivot point), then declined below the unchanged level, finding support at the daily pivot (6,384). Late-day buying pushed it slightly positive.
Sector Performance: Growth sectors (tech, discretionary, semiconductors) outperformed, while value and defensive sectors (e.g., staples, communication) lagged. Energy rose, helped by the U.S.-EU trade deal.
Trade Deal Impact: A U.S.-EU trade agreement was announced (15% tariffs, $600B EU investment in U.S., $750B U.S. energy purchases), but the market’s reaction was muted, suggesting a shift from highly positive to less positive sentiment.
Market Sentiment: Overbought conditions persist, with indicators including the StochRSI, Williams %R, and CCI showing extreme readings. Negative divergences in some momentum indicators (e.g., MACD, Chaikin Money Flow) suggest exhaustion, similar to a car struggling uphill.
Key Levels: The market is above the 20-day moving average, with pivot points updated daily. The 10-year yield at 4.42% is nearing a critical 4.5% level, which could be negative if crossed. The dollar rose above its 50-day moving average, potentially pressuring stocks.
Economic and Policy Context:
No Economic Reports: Monday had no major reports, but the week will see significant data releases and the Fed’s meeting.
Fed Expectations: No rate hike is expected, but focus is on whether the Fed will signal two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, possibly in September. Any change in guidance could impact markets.
Earnings: S&P 500 earnings are beating expectations, with 38% of companies reporting this week. Growth and semiconductor stocks showed strength.
Technical and Sentiment Indicators:
Positive Signals: Growth-to-value and discretionary-to-staples ratios are favorable. The Parabolic SAR, bullish percent indices (S&P above 70), and point-and-figure charts remain positive.
Negative Signals: McClellan Oscillators and summation indices are below zero, indicating broader market weakness. The Chaikin Money Flow and Oscillator are negative, and a long-term Zahorchak Method sell signal persists.
Volatility: The VIX is below 20 with seasonality suggesting potential VIX increases in August/September, often correlating with market declines.
Tuesday Outlook (July 29, 2025):
Economic Data: Key reports include advance international trade goods, wholesale/retail inventories, FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices, consumer confidence, and JOLTS job openings. These could influence market sentiment, especially if JOLTS contradicts Friday’s employment report.
Seasonality: Historically negative for S&P and NASDAQ on July 29, though post-election years show a slight bounce toward month-end.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm and other geopolitical developments (Middle East, Eastern Europe) could sway markets.
Market Outlook: The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes but shows signs of exhaustion. A normal pullback is possible in August/September, but a more aggressive decline would require reevaluation. Key resistance levels to watch include 6,400 (S&P) and long-term resistance at 6468 on the weekly chart.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs but appears tired, with mixed signals from momentum indicators and potential seasonal weakness ahead. Investors should monitor Fed signals, economic data, and pivot points for signs of a pullback or continued positive trend.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!