The 2008 REAL ESTATE Crash Won’t Repeat, But Something Worse Awaits You.

We analyze the US and European real estate markets in mid-2025. Why aren’t US housing prices falling despite 6-7% mortgage rates? We explain the "golden handcuffs" phenomenon and supply shortages. Europe presents an even more mixed picture: from rapid growth in Poland to stabilization in France and recovery in Germany. The key question: Are we facing a repeat of the 2008 crisis? We compare household debt levels then and now and explain why fundamentals are much stronger today. Forecast for late 2025 – early 2026: what to expect from prices, demand, and Fed/ECB rates.

00:00:00 – Introduction: Comparing US and European housing markets in mid-2025.
00:00:45 – US real estate analysis: why are prices holding?
00:01:35 – "Golden handcuffs" and supply shortage as key factors.
00:02:17 – Overview of European housing: general trends and regional differences.
00:03:13 – Chronic housing shortage in Europe: 10 million homes missing.
00:03:34 – Key difference from 2008: household debt and credit quality.
00:05:07 – Forecast for the US & Europe 2025-2026: stagnation or revival?
00:06:15 – Conclusion: soft landing instead of crisis.
00:06:38 – Final takeaway: why a 2008-style crash is unlikely.