S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday August 1, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Thursday, July 31, 2025
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 opened positively, hitting a high above 6400 (R2 at 6425) but closed near the intraday low, down 0.37%.
Despite solid earnings boosting futures by about 1% pre-market, selling into strength led to a choppy session.
The S&P remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating a pullback rather than a major downturn.
Volume was above average, and the S&P 500 is still positive across all time frames (above 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages).
Semiconductors and healthcare sectors underperformed
July closed up 2.17% for the S&P 500.
Key Levels and Movements:
The S&P 500 hit R2 early, fell below 6400 and R1 (6394), found support at 6370, but faced resistance at 6400.
It later dropped below the daily pivot (6365) and S1 (6334), closing slightly above S1.
Intraday trading was volatile, with buy-the-dip attempts failing to sustain momentum.
Economic and Policy Factors:
Interest rates declined (10-year yield at 4.36%), potentially supporting equities.
Tariffs are a key focus: a 15% tariff on South Korea (lower than expected), a 90-day extension for Mexico’s 25% tariff, and ongoing US trade deals with Japan and the EU. No US-China deal yet.
President Trump’s letters to 17 pharmaceutical CEOs demanding lower drug prices by September 29 pressured the healthcare sector.
Economic data:
Personal income and spending up 0.3% (as expected).
Core PCE prices up 0.3%, slightly higher than prior readings.
Weekly jobless claims at 218,000 (better than 220,000 expected).
Q2 employment cost index up 0.9% (above 0.8% expected).
Chicago PMI at 47.1 (contraction but better than 42.1 expected).
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators show weakening momentum: StochRSI is extremely negative, and the slope oscillator is declining below its moving average.
Intermediate-term indicators (e.g., Aroon) remain positive but are lagging, with momentum oscillators drifting negatively.
The ADX shows a weakening short-term trend, and the VIX is rising (still below 20), signaling increased volatility.
Growth outperformed value, especially in large caps, with the S&P 500 growth-to-value ratio hitting a new high.
Smart money indicators (e.g., Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow & Oscillator) negative, reflecting selling pressure.
Sector and Stock Highlights:
Meta surged over 11%, while Nvidia, Tesla, and Netflix declined.
Communication performed best, while healthcare and real estate lagged.
Financials underperforming the S&P, and small/mid-caps saw larger declines than large caps.
Looking Ahead to Friday, August 1:
The employment report, construction spending, and ISM manufacturing data will be key drivers.
Seasonality suggests a negative outlook for August 1, with historical data indicating weakness in post-election years.
A drop below the 20-day moving average or a disappointing employment report could shift momentum to negative.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive on all time frames but shows short-term weakness, with intermediate-term trends holding up better. Tariffs, earnings, and the upcoming employment report will likely dictate near-term direction. The market is at a critical juncture, with potential for either a breakout or further pullback, possibly depending on Friday’s data.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!