Jared Bernstein: The Economy ‘Not Doing as Well as It Was’ Under Joe Biden

LEMIRE: “All right, we’re bringing into the conversation now, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Biden, Jared Bernstein. Jared, good to see you this morning. Let’s start, if you will, by taking a step back. There’s been a lot of sort of conflicting numbers, data that’s come in in the last couple of weeks, just about the state of the economy and how healthy it is, or not. But let’s start there. Give us your assessment. Just as August 1st arrives, these deadlines arrive, how is the American economy doing right now?”
BERNSTEIN: “It’s not doing as well as it was before Trump took office, and certainly before the trade war. Probably the best overall measure of how the economy is doing is GDP growth, and that was trending north of 2%. Now it’s around 1% for the first half of the year. The job market is still in pretty good shape. We heard that from Chair Powell this week. But at the same time, we’re seeing some cracks. Employers have really slowed the rate of hiring. They haven’t engaged in layoffs yet. You can’t have a recession without layoffs. In fact, I don’t see a recession coming, at least in the next 6 to 12 months. What I do see is slower growth and higher prices, aka stagflation. That’s tough for American consumers, it’s tough for the Federal Reserve, because those forces go in the opposite directions for them. And I think it’s largely a symptom of this really foundationally misguided trade war.”