S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday August 8, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, August 7, 2025
Outlook for Friday, August 8, 2025
Market Performance: The S&P 500 started strong with a gap higher open, driven by positive news for the tech sector, particularly semiconductors, due to tariff exemptions. However, the high was set at the open, followed by a day of selling, closing slightly down by 0.08%. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ended slightly up, while the S&P 500 was marginally down.
Intraday Movement: The market opened at R2 (6385), fell below R1 (6365), found temporary support at the daily pivot (6333), and hit S1 (6313) before a late rebound above the daily pivot. Volume remained above average, indicating decent participation.
Sentiment and Trends: Sentiment is mixed but leans positive (55 on the sentiment gauge, near neutral). The S&P 500 is above the 20-period moving average and positive in short, intermediate, and long terms, but conviction is lacking, and a weakening trend is evident. The VIX dropped despite the down day, which is unusual.
Economic Indicators:
Q2 productivity rose 2.4% (expected 2.2%), with unit labor costs up 1.6% (expected 1.5%).
Jobless claims increased to 226,000 (expected 220,000), with continuing claims rising, signaling slower job recovery.
Consumer credit grew by $7.4 billion (less than the expected $8.6 billion).
Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (expected 0.2%).
Sector Performance: Utilities led as the strongest sector (defensive), while tech and semiconductors performed relatively well but surrendered early gains. Financials underperformed, with a death cross in the financials-to-S&P ratio. Growth stocks lagged value stocks, especially in mid and small caps.
Other Factors:
Interest rates rose to 4.22%, and the dollar continued its decline.
Fed-related news included Chris Waller as a potential Fed chair and Dr. Stephen Moran's temporary appointment, seen as dovish.
Margin debt is not at extreme levels, but a slight decline could signal caution if the S&P rallies.
Technical Outlook: The market shows a healthy bar pattern (higher highs and lows) but negative divergences (e.g., NYSE advance-decline line underperforming). Oscillators are mixed, with no extreme readings, and the short-term trend is vulnerable but still above key moving averages.
Friday, August 8 Outlook:
No major economic reports are scheduled, so market moves may hinge on news or geopolitical events.
Seasonality is neutral to positive for the Dow and S&P but neutral to negative for the NASDAQ. Post-election years historically show weakness in August, particularly until mid-month.
The S&P 500 remains positive overall but lacks conviction, with potential weakness developing. A strong catalyst could reverse this, but the trend is softening.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a positive but weakening trend, with mixed signals and no clear direction. Defensive sectors are outperforming, and technical indicators suggest caution, especially given seasonal weakness in post-election years.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!