InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday August 11, 2025

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Intermarket Analysis Video Update Summary for Monday August 11, 2025
This weekly video analyzes markets beyond the S&P 500 to gain insights into its performance, covering sectors, indexes, commodities, and currencies.
Key Points:
1. Small Caps Update: The Russell 2000 generated a golden cross, signaling a bullish trend, while the S&P 600 has not yet followed.
2. US Dollar: In a downtrend, which supports stock market gains due to favorable exchange rates and trade dynamics, despite expectations of a stronger dollar from tariffs.
3. Valuation: The S&P 500 remains overvalued, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.45 (per Robert Schiller) and a forward P/E of 22.1, historically high but sustainable for extended periods.
4. Growth vs. Value: Growth continues to outperform value, confirmed across various indexes and ETFs, with growth stocks in a strong uptrend.
5. Inflation: Mixed signals—CRB index shows rising inflationary pressures, but commodities such as aluminum, corn, and wheat are in downtrends. Fertilizer and lumber show some inflationary signals, while oil is declining mainly due to geopolitical factors.
6. Sectors:
Tech: Strong, setting new highs and outperforming the S&P 500.
Financials: In an uptrend but underperforming relative to the S&P 500, raising concerns.
Utilities: Performing well, potentially as a growth or defensive sector.
Energy and Staples: Underperforming the S&P 500.
7. Commodities and Metals:
Copper: In an uptrend but recently hit by tariff news, with the copper-to-gold ratio signaling economic concerns.
Gold: Sideways, outperforming oil on a ratio basis.
Silver: Bouncing off its 50-day moving average.
8. Currencies: The US dollar is weakening against the euro and yen, with the euro recently rising above its 50-day moving average.
9. Indexes:
NASDAQ 100 set a new all-time high, outperforming the S&P 500.
Small and mid-caps are in uptrends but underperforming the S&P 500.
Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforms the weighted version, indicating mega-cap dominance.
10. Bonds and Yields:
Bonds (7-10 year treasuries, corporate, junk) are in uptrends, with junk bonds outperforming conservative bonds.
10-year treasury yields are rising slightly but remain within a higher post-COVID range.
11. Other Markets:
High-leverage loans is in an uptrend, signaling economic confidence.
Emerging markets and global stocks (ex-US) are performing well.
Semiconductors are recovering but underperforming tech.
12. Long-Term Trends: Most major indexes and assets are in uptrends, except the US dollar. The S&P 500 and NYSE remain above long-term moving averages, though some indicators (e.g., Coppock Curve) show declines.
Conclusion:
The market remains overvalued but resilient, driven by mega-cap growth stocks and supported by a weaker dollar. Inflation signals are mixed, and financials’ underperformance warrants monitoring. Most assets are in uptrends, with the Russell 2000’s golden cross as a positive development.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BFN3s6LvW-lhdGqfYY_SBmoLRGZ2eZYS/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!