S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday August 14, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, August 13, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, August 14, 2025:
Market Performance:
S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100: All hit new all-time highs, with broader market participation reducing negative divergences.
Market Movement: The S&P 500 opened with a gap higher above R1 (6466), reached an intraday high at the 6475 level, pulled back to the unchanged level (acted as support), and closed up 0.32% at R1. Volume remained below average but improved.
Key Sectors: Value stocks outperformed growth, with mid-caps and small-caps showing strength. Discretionary and healthcare sectors improved, while mega-cap tech (e.g., Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta) underperformed. Materials and healthcare were strong, with semiconductors (SMH ETF) also hitting new highs.
Economic and Geopolitical Factors:
Economic Reports: Key reports upcoming include initial and continuing jobless claims and PPI on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday, which could influence markets.
Interest Rates and Inflation: CPI data suggests inflation is under control, supporting expectations for a September rate cut. Treasury Secretary Scott Bissett advocates for a 50-basis-point cut, with a further 150-basis-point reduction proposed. However, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee expressed caution about a September cut due to rising service sector concerns.
Geopolitical Events: Trump-Putin meeting, trade deals, and tariff news could impact markets.
Technical Indicators:
Positive Signals: Most indicators (e.g., RSI, CCI, stochastics, MACD, Bollinger Bands) show positive momentum, with the S&P above its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages. The advance-decline line and other breadth indicators reflect broad market strength.
Concerns: Some negative divergences remain, with Chaikin Money Flow flat after declining, suggesting possible smart money selling. The market is testing overhead resistance at 6468 (S&P 500 weekly chart).
Seasonality: Historically, August and September are weaker for markets, especially in post-election years, but the market is currently defying this trend.
Other Observations:
Market Sentiment: Fear is declining (VIX dropping), with increased options activity and hedging via puts. Risk appetite suggests bearish expectations, potentially supporting further gains via reverse psychology.
Asset Flows: Money is exiting cryptocurrencies and developed market equities but flowing into money markets, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds.
Valuations: The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is high at 22, indicating an expensive market, but earnings growth (up 18% since October 2022) supports price increases.
Outlook for Thursday, August 14:
Key Levels: Watch for the S&P 500 breaking and closing above resistance at 6468 or stalling. Pivot points may act as support or resistance.
Events to Monitor: Jobless claims, PPI, and geopolitical developments could drive volatility. Options expiration on Friday may also influence trading.
Trend: The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes, with improving short- and intermediate-term conviction. However, caution is warranted due to potential resistance and lingering negative divergences.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a strong position but faces resistance and upcoming economic data that could sway direction. A break above resistance would confirm further strength, while failure to do so could lead to a pullback, especially given seasonal weakness.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!