MOVE Index Flashes Red: Is a Major Meltdown Coming in Stocks, Credit or Gold?

The Fed is on edge, inflation data is diverging, and the next FOMC may be a battleground. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, joins Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron to unpack July’s shock 0.9% PPI reading and why tariff-fueled services inflation could ignite a major policy split. With six potential dissents looming, Booth warns that the Fed’s credibility is at stake — and the MOVE index is flashing a red alert.

In this no-spin interview, Booth dives deep into the PPI–CPI mismatch, labor revisions showing net job losses in 2024, and Scott Bessent’s call for a dramatically lower neutral rate. She also breaks down how smart money is positioning now across bonds, gold, equities, and the dollar — and why the next policy mistake could cost investors dearly.

Key topics:
-PPI up 0.9 percent, services up 1.1 percent: tariffs, pass-through, and margin pressure
-PPI versus CPI: methodology shifts, shelter, and why the gap matters
-Bessent’s neutral debate: 150–175 bps lower and the case for or against a 50 bps cut
-Fed dynamics: independence and dissent risk at the September meeting
-Labor reality: continuing claims, delinquencies, and revisions since 2024
-Tariffs: revenue versus growth drag, wholesalers and retail margins, earnings risk
-Positioning: duration calls, sector tilts, defensives versus tech risk
-Gold above 3,300 dollars, miners versus bullion, and a strong-dollar contrarian setup
-One indicator to watch first: the MOVE index and credit stress

Chapters:
00:00 Intro: PPI up 0.9 percent, services up 1.1 percent, tariffs and markets
01:06 PPI versus CPI: methodology, shelter, and margin squeeze risk
03:30 Bessent on neutral and the 50 bps cut debate
05:39 Jobs and revisions: continuing claims, delinquencies, net job loss since 2024
09:09 Data quality and how the Fed decides (BLS changes and revisions)
12:40 Fed dynamics: independence and dissent risk at the September FOMC
14:35 Tariffs: revenue versus drag, wholesalers and retail margins, earnings
15:43 Positioning: bonds and duration, equities and sector tilts, defensives
17:50 Gold and miners: levels, flows, and dollar scenarios
19:23 One early warning: MOVE index to credit to broader risk
21:10 Lightning round and takeaways

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: https://x.com/JeremySzafron
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Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on X: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth

Subscribe to Danielle’s research on Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

#Fed #RateCuts #Inflation
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