S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday August 19, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, August 18, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, August 19, 2025:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 had a quiet day with no significant movement, closing slightly lower (-0.01%) at around 6440, with below average trading volume. Before the Open, the futures were slightly down, and the market fluctuated without strong conviction, indicating a lack of clear direction.
Sector Insights: Health care showed some strength, suggesting a potential shift toward defensive sectors. Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed mega caps, with discretionary stocks performing better than staples.
Technical Indicators: The S&P 500 remains positive across all time frames, though short-term momentum is weakening slightly (e.g., Williams %R and CCI 20 declining). Negative divergences are present but improving. The S&P is facing resistance at the 6448 level on the weekly chart.
Economic and Geopolitical Context:
The Jackson Hole Symposium, starting Thursday with Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, is the week’s key event. Markets are cautious due to Powell’s 2022 speech impacting expectations.
No major agreements from the recent summit in Alaska, but talks continue with U.S., Ukrainian, and European leaders, potentially affecting market sentiment.
The 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.34%, below the critical 4.5% level. The dollar was marginally up.
Upcoming economic data includes FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday), housing starts, building permits, and jobless claims (Thursday).
Sentiment and Other Metrics: Sentiment improved slightly (65 from 64), but the market is overvalued, with concerns about revised employment data and tariff costs impacting businesses. Earnings revisions for 2026 show optimism for the "Magnificent Seven" but a 4% downward revision for other S&P stocks.
Market Outlook for Tuesday, August 19:
The market is likely to remain range-bound due to a narrow trading range on Monday, with pivot points close together for Tuesday.
Overhead resistance remains a challenge, requiring a catalyst to break through.
Seasonality data suggests post-election years are typically negative in August, with potential weakness into September/October.
Positive factors include strong earnings guidance (58% of companies raised 2025 forecasts) and foreign inflows into U.S. equities.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is treading water with low conviction, positive on all time frames but facing resistance and mixed signals. The Jackson Hole Symposium and geopolitical developments could drive volatility later in the week.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!