S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday August 26, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, August 25, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, August 26, 2025:
Monday's Market Action:
The S&P 500 opened flat, with futures slightly negative, and saw a gradual climb to resistance at the unchanged level before declining steadily to close at the day's low of 6,443, down 0.43% on below-average volume.
The S&P remains positive across all three time frames (short, intermediate, long) but is still below overhead resistance at 6,468.
Mega caps and growth stocks outperformed value stocks, though the market leaned defensive. Small and mid-caps underperformed after a strong Friday.
Interest rates rose slightly to 4.28% (10-year yield), reflecting ongoing inflation concerns. The dollar was up, potentially pressuring stocks.
New home sales dropped 0.6% month-over-month but exceeded expectations at 642,000 annually, though down 8.2% year-over-year.
No significant news on tariffs or trade deals impacted the market.
Key Indicators:
Sentiment remains positive at 59 but is declining slightly. The ADX is below its moving average, indicating a weakening trend, though still positive.
The Chande trend Meter shows a positive intermediate-term trend, but short-term indicators lack conviction.
Growth-to-value ratios are weakening, with discretionary outperforming staples, a potentially positive sign.
The VIX ticked up to the high 14s, but no significant fear emerged. Advance-decline lines and volume-based indicators suggest the broader market held up better than the S&P.
Economic and Market Context:
Friday’s speech by Jerome Powell signaled a potential rate cut in September, boosting market sentiment, but Monday lacked follow-through.
Valuations remain high (e.g., NASDAQ 100 PE at 28, S&P at 22), but earnings growth projections for 2026 support optimism.
Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P reaching 6,600 and potentially 6,900, driven by earnings growth.
Upcoming economic reports include durable goods, consumer confidence, and housing data on Tuesday, with Core PCE inflation on Friday being critical.
Outlook for Tuesday:
The S&P 500 faces resistance at the 6,468 pivot point. A break above this level is needed to confirm bullish momentum; otherwise, the defensive posture may persist.
Seasonally, August 26 is neutral to positive for the S&P and NASDAQ, but post-election year weakness in August persists but has yet to materialize.
Key events to watch include Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, which could significantly impact market direction, and upcoming economic data.
The S&P 500 remains positive but lacks short-term conviction, with potential for choppy trading unless resistance is breached.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a holding pattern, positive on all time frames but struggling with overhead resistance and a defensive tilt. Tuesday’s data and earnings could dictate whether the S&P tests or breaks the 6,468 level, with Friday’s Core PCE report looming large.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!