S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday August 27, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Market Summary for Tuesday, August 26, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, August 27, 2025:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 was slightly up on Tuesday, closing above the R1 pivot point at 6458, a 0.41% gain, recovering from Monday's 0.43% loss. However, it remains below overhead resistance at 6468. The S&P 500 is treading water, showing no significant improvement or deterioration, with a lack of strong conviction.
Key Levels and Pivot Points: The session started with a lower open, setting an intraday low at S1 (6429). Prices rose above the unchanged level, hit resistance at the daily pivot (6448), and later broke above it due to late-day buying.
Volume and Trends: Volume was above average, a positive shift from recent below-average trends. The S&P 500 remains positive across the short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes, with all major indexes (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, S&P 600) in uptrends. A golden cross in the S&P 600 confirms earlier signals in the Russell 2000.
Economic Data: Durable goods orders exceeded expectations (+2.8% vs. -3.5% forecast), signaling economic strength. Housing price indexes (FHFA and Case-Shiller) dropped slightly, potentially easing homebuying conditions. Consumer confidence rose to 97.4%, slightly above the 96.3% expected but below the prior 98.7%.
Inflation and Rates: Interest rates dipped to 4.26% from 4.28%. Upcoming reports, including GDP inflation components and core PCE on Friday, are anticipated to provide clarity on inflation trends, particularly after recent PPI concerns. A September rate cut is largely expected, per the FedWatch tool.
Fed and Political Developments: President Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook is sparking a legal battle, with constitutional questions about Fed independence. This is seen as a political maneuver with limited market impact for now.
Sector Performance: Mega caps underperformed slightly but outperformed the broader market. Small caps performed well, with the S&P 600 generating a golden cross. Discretionary sectors are improving relative to staples, signaling a less defensive market posture.
Technical Indicators: Mixed signals persist. Short-term indicators such as the Williams %R show conviction, while stochastics are volatile. The McClellan Oscillator remains negative, and momentum indicators including the MACD show divergence. The Chande Trend Meter leans positive, but overall conviction is lacking.
Wednesday Outlook: Nvidia’s earnings after Wednesday’s close are expected to significantly influence market direction, potentially breaking the current resistance or reinforcing it. Economic reports are light, with MBA Mortgage Applications Index as the main release. Geopolitical and trade developments have minimal impact currently.
Seasonality and Sentiment: August seasonality is typically weak, but positive trends from 2002 data and recent market resilience suggest potential strength. Sentiment is positive but not extreme, with the ADX indicating a weakening trend.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is positive across all timeframes but lacks conviction, constrained by overhead resistance at 6468. Nvidia’s earnings could be a catalyst to break this level or trigger a pullback. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data (GDP, PCE) and pivot points for Wednesday’s session.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IlGw2XfP0UHHsEgFHTAibqgf5Xs8Tks2/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!