S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday August 29, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Thursday, August 28, 2025;
Outlook for Friday August 29, 2025:
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, closing above 6,500 for the first time, setting a new all-time high despite below-average trading volume, marking a classic negative divergence.
The S&P 500 saw a flat open, dipped slightly, found support at the daily pivot (6,473), and climbed above the unchanged level and R1 (6,493), closing just below R2 (6,505).
Mega-cap stocks drove gains, with growth outperforming value, though broader market participation was limited compared to prior sessions.
The Dow set an intraday all-time high, while the NASDAQ and other indexes showed positive but mixed performance.
Key Economic and Market Indicators:
Upcoming Data: The core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due Friday, August 29. A favorable reading could sustain market gains, while a hotter-than-expected report might trigger volatility.
Economic Reports: GDP growth was revised upward to 3.3% from 3%, initial jobless claims fell to 229,000 (below the expected 236,000), and continuing claims slightly declined. Pending home sales dropped 0.4%, underperforming expectations.
Interest Rates and Dollar: Interest rates fell to 4.21% from 4.42%, supporting equities. The U.S. dollar weakened, also aiding stock gains.
Earnings: NVIDIA’s earnings report, released Wednesday after market close, led to a decline after-hours, but improved to a slight decline in its stock by Thursday’s Close.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 remains above the 6,468 resistance level on the weekly chart, with a close above this level on Friday critical for confirming bullish momentum.
Short-term indicators (e.g., CCI 14, CCI 20, stochastics) show positive conviction, while intermediate-term indicators such as the Chande Trend Meter suggest potential overextension.
Volume has been below average for two consecutive all-time highs, a concern amplified by the upcoming three-day weekend, which may lead to position squaring.
The McClellan Oscillator dropped below zero, indicating short-term weakness, though longer-term trends remain positive.
Sector and Market Dynamics:
Growth sectors (tech, communication, discretionary) outperformed defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, staples), with energy also rebounding.
The financial sector hit a new high but continues to underperform the broader S&P 500 in relative terms.
The Magnificent Seven stocks are expected to stabilize with double-digit earnings growth, while other S&P stocks are projected to accelerate mid-digit growth by Q3 2026.
Sentiment and Volatility:
The VIX remains below 20, indicating lower fear, though seasonality suggests potential volatility spikes in September, historically a weak month for markets.
Individual investor sentiment is slightly more positive but still net negative, potentially supporting contrarian bullishness.
Low volatility across stocks, bonds, and currencies may precede a period of higher volatility.
Outlook for Friday, August 29:
The markets are focused on the core PCE report, alongside personal income/spending and consumer sentiment data. A positive PCE outcome could sustain the rally, while a negative surprise may cause a pullback.
Seasonally, August 29 has mixed performance, and September historically trends negative, raising caution.
Key levels to watch: S&P 500 support at 6,468 (R1 on the weekly chart) and potential resistance at current highs. A close above 6,468 on Friday would help confirm bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive across short, intermediate, and long-term time frames, driven by growth stocks and supported by lower interest rates and a weaker dollar. However, below-average volume, negative divergences, and upcoming economic data introduce risks. The core PCE report will be pivotal for Friday’s session, with seasonality and potential volatility looming as September approaches.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!