S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday September 2, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, August 29, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, September 2, 2025:
Friday: The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.64% on Friday, closing at 6,460, below the weekly pivot level of 6,468, marking a 0.1% weekly decline. Despite the down day, August was positive, up 1.91%, breaking a historical trend of negative Augusts in post-election years since 1950. The S&P 500 remains above the 20-period moving averages, indicating a positive trend across all timeframes, though it fell below long-term resistance.
Market Activity: The day started with a gap lower, driven by negative futures and economic reports meeting expectations (e.g., core PCE inflation at 2.9% year-over-year). The S&P 500 found support at 6,451 (S2) and traded between 6,460 and 6,476. Volume was below average due to the Labor Day weekend, with many investors taking profits. Mega caps, growth stocks, and semiconductors saw significant selling, while defensive sectors such as healthcare, staples, and energy outperformed.
Economic Indicators: Personal income rose 0.4%, spending 0.5%, and PCE inflation 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Consumer sentiment dropped to 58.2, below expectations. Chicago PMI weakened to 41.5, indicating regional economic softness. Interest rates rose to 4.23% (10-year yield), and the dollar continued its decline.
Fed Outlook: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with more expected over the next 3-6 months. Despite this, market conviction waned, with short-term indicators showing weakness, though the long-term trend remains positive.
Technical Analysis: The S&P 500 is back below resistance on the weekly chart. Short-term trends weakened, with growth-to-value ratios declining, particularly in small and mid-cap sectors. The VIX remained tame, but the skew index suggests expectations of a significant move. The McClellan Oscillator and other indicators showed mixed signals, with some positive momentum but no strong conviction.
Sector Performance: Growth sectors (tech, discretionary, communication) underperformed, while defensive sectors held up better. Financials showed improvement, and the NASDAQ fell while the Dow remained near its daily pivot point.
Outlook for Tuesday, September 2: Markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday. Tuesday’s outlook is neutral to negative for the Dow and neutral to positive for the S&P and NASDAQ, with no strong directional edge. Key reports include ISM manufacturing and construction spending. Geopolitical risks remain a concern over the long weekend. September historically leans negative, with an average return of -0.7% and a 46% chance of gains since 1964.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive but lacks conviction after Friday’s pullback. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data, particularly the employment report on Friday, and potential geopolitical developments.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!