Weekly Update for September 2-5, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary (August 25-29, 2025)
This video provides a comprehensive analysis of the stock market's performance for the week of August 25-29, 2025, with a focus on broader trends and upcoming expectations for September.
Here's a concise summary:
Market Performance
Weekly Results: The market ended slightly down, with the Dow and NASDAQ each down 0.2%, and the S&P 500 down 0.1%. Small caps showed improvement but remain volatile.
Monthly Outcome: August 2025 was positive, defying historical post-election year trends (since 1950), where August typically underperforms.
Key Indices: The S&P 500 hit all-time highs but faced resistance and closed slightly below the weekly pivot point (6468). NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 lagged, failing to break resistance.
Economic Indicators
GDP: Revised upward to 3.3%, signaling robust growth with stable inflation (core PCE at 2.9%, Fed target 2%).
Employment: The upcoming employment situation report on Friday is anticipated to be a key market driver.
Fed Policy: Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut in September (86.4% probability), with Fed speakers signaling a data-dependent, dovish approach. The 10-year yield settled at 4.23%.
Other Data: Low jobless claims, sluggish housing sales, and a weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI were noted.
Market Dynamics
Sector Performance: Tech and communication sectors led gains, while defensive sectors (staples, utilities) lagged. Financials and small caps showed improvement, but energy saw a bounce mainly due to rising oil prices.
Nvidia Earnings: Strong but underwhelming forward guidance led to a stock price drop, impacting mega-cap performance.
Market Sentiment: Mixed signals with the Fear and Greed Index at 64, Investors Intelligence showing cautious optimism, and active asset managers nearing extreme bullishness (92.94).
Technical Analysis
Trends: The market is in a weakening trend on weekly charts, with no clear direction. Daily charts show short-term strength fading after Friday’s sell-off.
Resistance/Support: The S&P 500 is testing the R1 pivot point (6468) as potential support after failing to sustain above it.
Indicators: Positive momentum persists (e.g., bullish percent index, PMO), but some oscillators (e.g., McClellan, slope oscillator) show short-term weakness. The advance-decline line and new highs/lows remain positive longer-term.
Seasonality and Outlook
September Expectations: Historically weak (up 44.6% of the time since 1950, average return -0.7%), with the second half typically worse. August’s unexpected strength raises questions about whether September will defy or fulfill this trend.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Tariffs, trade deals, and Fed policy are influencing market sentiment, with potential for increased volatility post-Labor Day as trading volume should rise.
Other Asset Classes
Bonds: Positive intermediate-term but negative short- and long-term.
Commodities: Positive across all time frames, with gold range-bound, silver hitting new highs, and copper improving.
Dollar: In a downtrend, supporting equities.
Yields: The 30-year yield is rising, while the 10-year is slightly down. Japan’s rising rates remain a watchpoint after last year’s carry trade unwind.
Key Takeaways
The market is at a crossroads, with short-term defensive shifts but a longer-term positive outlook.
The employment report and Fed’s September 17 decision will be critical.
Small caps and financials are improving, but tech and mega-caps remain key drivers.
Historical September weakness looms, but August’s resilience suggests potential for surprises.
Monitor price action and key economic data.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1miSM_LtKu0fNWTvGt9O6pLIUVnZj0NcS/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!