InterMarket Analysis Update for Tuesday September 2, 2025

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This video provides a weekly intermarket analysis focusing on factors beyond S&P 500 valuation to gauge market trends.
Key points include:
Valuation: The S&P 500 is significantly overvalued, with a high P/E ratio compared to historical norms, but valuation isn't a reliable timing tool for market corrections.
Growth vs. Value: Long-term trends favor growth over value, but short-term shifts suggest a more defensive market posture.
Seasonality: August typically sees declines in post-election years, but the S&P 500 rose 1.91%. September is historically weaker, raising questions about a potential decline.
Inflation: Long-term inflation is rising, but short-term concerns are minimal, with no strong confirmation across markets.
Other Markets: Commodities, gold, and currencies are analyzed. Gold is breaking out, while the U.S. dollar is the only negative factor, trending downward.
Sectors and Ratios: All 11 S&P sectors are reviewed independently and relative to the S&P 500. Energy and financials show improvement but underperforming long-term. Defensive sectors such as staples and utilities are gaining slightly.
Correlations: Stocks are outperforming bonds, with a strong correlation between rising stock prices and falling bond yields. The S&P 500 and the dollar are moving inversely.
Market Breadth: Most indexes (e.g., NYSE, Wilshire) hit all-time highs, but some divergences (e.g., Dow transports not confirming) suggest caution.
Bonds and Volatility: Bonds are in an uptrend, with low volatility (VIX under 20). Junk bonds outperforming conservative bonds, indicating risk appetite.
Global Markets: Emerging markets and Japan showing strength, while Europe and U.S. markets are weakening slightly.
Positive/Negative List: Everything is positive except the U.S. dollar index, which remains in a downtrend.
The analysis highlights a broadly positive but cautious market outlook, with defensive shifts and a weakening dollar as key considerations.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1miSM_LtKu0fNWTvGt9O6pLIUVnZj0NcS/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!