S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday September 5, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Market Summary for Thursday, September 4th, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, September 5th, 2025

The S&P 500 set a new all-time high, closing just above 6,500, up 0.83% for the day.
The S&P 500 opened with a gap higher at the R1 pivot point (6463), briefly dipped to the unchanged level (acting as support), and then rallied above R2 (6477) to close above 6,500.
Volume remained below average, indicating a negative divergence (price rising but volume declining), though this isn’t always a definitive signal of a reversal.
The S&P 500 is currently above the 20-period moving average, recaptured on Wednesday, and above long-term resistance at 6468, a level it has struggled to close above for three weeks.
Interest rates continued to decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.18% from 4.21% (and 4.28% recently), potentially positive for stocks but risking an oversold condition.
Technical and Sentiment Analysis:
The S&P 500 is positive across short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes, but momentum indicators show mixed signals with some negative divergences (e.g., RSI making lower highs while S&P hits higher highs).
The parabolic SAR turned positive again, and short-term indicators including the Williams %R and CCI (14) show positive conviction, but intermediate-term indicators including the Chaikin Oscillator and Chande trend Meter are at extreme levels, suggesting potential slowdown or reversal.
The advance-decline line and bullish percent indexes (S&P and NASDAQ 100) show no strong conviction, with the NASDAQ 100’s bullish percent index below 50, indicating weakness.
Sentiment is neutral (52 on the sentiment gauge, down from 54).
Economic Data and Employment Report Expectations:
Key economic reports included:
ADP Employment Change: 54,000 new jobs (below the expected 69,000, down from 106,000).
Trade Balance: Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion (worse than expected -$64.2 billion).
Q2 Productivity: 3.3% (above expected 2.4%), with unit labor costs revised down to 1% from 1.6%, a positive economic signal.
Weekly Jobless Claims: Rose to 237,000 (above expectations), with continuing claims slightly down but still high.
ISM Services PMI: 52 (above expected 50.5, up from 50.1), indicating robust economic activity.
The upcoming employment report on Friday, September 5th, is a major focus, with expectations of a weak report (78,000 new jobs, unemployment rate at 4.3%) to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. A too-weak report could unsettle the markets, while pricing may already reflect expectations (“buy the rumor, sell the news”).
Sector and Market Trends:
Growth sectors (tech, communication, discretionary, financials) led the market, with large-cap growth outperforming value, though mid- and small-cap growth-to-value ratios remain weaker.
The FANG index (big tech stocks) hit a new all-time high, driven by strong performances from Amazon (+4%) and Meta (+1.5%).
Commodities (gold, silver) are in a strong bull run, while the dollar is in a short-term uptrend, potentially pressuring stocks if it strengthens further.
Bonds are positive in the short and intermediate term based on price, with yields dropping, but a rapid decline could lead to an oversold condition.

Outlook for September 5th:
The S&P 500 is testing the 6468 resistance level for the fourth week. A weekly close above this could signal a breakout, while failure to hold may reinforce resistance.
The employment report will likely drive market direction. A weak but not disastrous report could support expectations of Fed rate cuts, while a strong report might reduce cut expectations, and a very weak report could spark volatility.
Seasonally, September is typically weak, but this hasn’t materialized yet in 2025. The second half of September historically performs worse.
Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism: positive trends across all timeframes, but weakening momentum and mixed signals in the intermediate term. Smart money indicators are positive but at extreme levels, warranting caution.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a positive but precarious position, sitting above key resistance and all-time highs with limited conviction (low volume, mixed momentum). The employment report on Friday will be pivotal, potentially confirming or disrupting the current uptrend. While long-term trends remain bullish, short- and intermediate-term weaknesses suggest a possible pullback if resistance isn’t cleared or if the employment data disappoints.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/15NEEQxGD8y8QeRgvBucZnn_S8lov9-Su/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!