S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday September 8, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Market Update Summary for Friday, September 5, 2025:
Outlook for Monday September 8, 2025:
Employment Report and Fed Expectations:
The much-anticipated employment report showed weaker-than-expected results, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, likely by 25 basis points, with more cuts anticipated throughout the year.
The weak report solidified the likelihood of a rate cut, as a stronger report might have reduced the chances by justifying higher rates.
Nonfarm payrolls were significantly lower at 22,000 (vs. 78,000 expected), with private payrolls at 38,000 (vs. 90,000 expected). Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2%, and revisions to prior data were mixed.
Despite economic strength (e.g., strong ISM services data), the Fed is expected to cut rates to fine-tune the economy, not due to a collapsing economy.
Market Performance:
The S7P 500 opened higher above R1 (6521) but sold off, reflecting a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction.
The S&P 500 dropped below the daily pivot (6484) and S1 (6465), finding support at 6450, and closed slightly below the pivot, down 0.32%.
Volume was above average, indicating high anticipation for the report.
The S&P set an intraday high but not a closing high, closing below 6,500. The NASDAQ hit an intraday all-time high, but the NASDAQ 100 did not, showing underperformance by large-cap stocks.
Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500, benefiting from expected rate cuts, which reduce borrowing costs and boost profits.
The S&P 500 remains positive across all time frames, closing above long-term resistance (6468), but conviction is lacking in short-term indicators.
Interest Rates and Other Assets:
The 10-year yield dropped significantly from 4.28% to 4.09% this week, supporting bond price increases and potentially aiding stocks.
The dollar weakened, and oil prices continued to decline, suggesting low inflationary pressure.
Technical Indicators:
Mixed signals: Short-term indicators (e.g., CCI 20, stochastics) show positive conviction, but others (e.g., Chaiken Oscillator, Chande Trend Meter) remain extreme yet declining.
Momentum is mixed, with some internal charts positive and others negative. The S&P 500 is above key moving averages, but short- and intermediate-term trends are showing some weakness.
The VIX (volatility index) remains below 20, indicating lower volatility, with no significant seasonal spike yet.
Sector Performance:
Financials, energy, and some large-cap tech stocks (e.g., NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon) underperformed, while communication (Google, Meta) and small/mid-caps showed relative strength.
The financial-to-S&P ratio weakened, signaling potential economic concerns.
Sentiment and Outlook:
Sentiment is neutral, with investors cautious despite intraday or closing highs in major indices.
The S&P 500 is positive across all time frames but lacks strong short-term conviction. Holding above long-term resistance (6468) is key.
Upcoming data includes consumer credit (Monday), PPI (Wednesday), CPI (Thursday), and consumer sentiment (Friday), with inflation data being critical for Fed policy expectations.
Historically, September is weak, but this hasn’t materialized yet, with the first half typically stronger than the second.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive but lacks short-term conviction after a weaker employment report confirmed Fed rate cut expectations. Small and mid-caps outperformed, and falling yields support bond prices and stocks. Key levels to watch include the S&P’s ability to hold above 6468 and upcoming inflation data.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g3zc-iMZ-AiRX-yCAf6d-Tqs5T8QPQpF/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!