Microstrategy: Further Decline

After a brief consolidation, MSTR continued its decline since our last update, further developing turquoise wave 2, where we still see price positioned. We continue to anticipate the low of this wave above the support at $153.49. In the meantime, we have revised the magenta substructure of wave 2 to a [w]-[x]-[y] formation, with the final (wave-[y]) leg currently unfolding. Once turquoise wave 2 completes, we expect a strong rally above resistance at $674.18, which should significantly advance the broader upward impulse. However, under our new alternative scenario, a different wave count could prevail: price may currently be forming magenta wave alt. to the upside, developing a blue three-part substructure in the process. In this 25% likely scenario, the next move would be for blue wave alt. (b) to finish within the nearby blue alternative Target Zone between $306.60 and $252.67, before wave alt. (c) pushes up toward the top of magenta wave alt. near $674.18. Within this alternative, the blue zone could offer long entry opportunities, though heightened caution is warranted: since this remains only an alternative scenario, risk is elevated, and we consider strict risk management—such as setting a stop 1% below the lower edge of the zone—absolutely essential.