Weekly Update for September 8-12, 2025

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Weekly Update for September 8-12, 2025:
Market Performance (Sep 2–5, 2025):
The S&P 500 ended the week with modest gains: Dow down 0.3%, NASDAQ up 1.1% (driven by Google and Apple), S&P 500 up 0.3%, and small/mid-caps also positive.
Volume was below average except on Friday, impacted by one fewer trading day (Labor Day).
Positive across all time frames (short, intermediate, long-term), but with signs of weakening trends (ADX below 20 on the short-term daily/weekly charts).
S&P and NASDAQ hit intraday all-time highs on Friday but closed off highs, not setting new closing highs.
Key Influences:
Employment Report: Weaker than expected but not recessionary, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut (99% chance of rate cut).
Interest Rates: 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.23% to 4.09%, supporting stocks and nearing levels that could positively impact corporate profits.
Dollar: Continued downtrend, aiding stock performance, but a potential reversal could pressure markets.
Geopolitical/Earnings: Minimal market impact from geopolitical events; earnings season largely concluded.
Sector Highlights:
Winners: Communication (Google up 11% after favorable Chrome antitrust ruling), discretionary (Amazon, Tesla), real estate, and materials performed well.
Losers: Energy and financials underperformed.
Growth sectors (tech, communication, discretionary) outperformed defensive sectors (healthcare, energy, staples), indicating an offensive market stance.
Economic Indicators:
Positive: ISM services report showed stronger-than-expected growth; GDP estimates revised upward (Atlanta Fed above 3%); low recession probabilities.
Concerns: Rising initial jobless claims, high continuing claims, and increasing long-term unemployment (over 6 months) signal some labor market weakness.
Inflation: CPI and PPI data expected this week.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend with higher highs/lows, but momentum is slowing (e.g., McClellan Oscillator slightly below zero, bullish percent index declining).
Positive indicators: Advance-decline line, accumulation/distribution, and Heiken Ashi remain bullish.
Weakness: Some oscillators (e.g., slope oscillator, Vortex) show declining momentum, but long-term indicators (RSI, Williams %R) remain positive.
Sentiment:
Investors Intelligence survey above 3, signaling bullishness (potential contrarian indicator).
VIX below 20, indicating low fear; individual investors leaning bearish, which could support further upside if market defies expectations.
Seasonality:
September historically weak (up 46% of the time since 1964, average return -0.7%), but no significant weakness in August or early September so far.
Second half of September typically the worst-performing period.
Asset Classes:
Gold/Silver: Breaking out (gold +4% last week), outperforming stocks recently.
Commodities: Mixed; oil in the low 60s, copper recovering but down for the week.
Bonds: Improving in price, but stocks still outperforming bonds long-term.
Dollar: Weakness continues, supporting other asset classes.
Outlook (Sep 8–12, 2025):
The S&P 500 remains positive but with signs of caution (some defensive sector rotation, weakening momentum).
Lower interest rates and a dovish Fed support growth, but labor market softening and potential dollar reversal are risks.
Seasonality suggests possible weakness later in September, but current data supports a pullback rather than a reversal.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is holding up well with growth sectors leading, supported by falling yields and a weaker dollar. However, softening labor data and seasonal risks warrant caution. A Fed rate cut appears imminent, likely boosting the markets, but investors should monitor employment trends and momentum indicators for signs of a shift.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!