Unusual death cluster

Seven AfD candidates died prior to the 2025 local elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), scheduled for September 14, 2025
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd

https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

AfD Candidates Who Died Before the 2025 NRW Elections

https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Wolfgang Seitz (59)

16 August 2025, heart attack

Wolfgang Klinger (71)

19 August 2025, natural causes

Stefan Berendes (59)

27 August 2025, ? sudden cardiac arrest, natural causes, kept secret for privacy reasons

Ralph Klaus Norbert Lange (66)

28 August 2025, presumed heart attack
René Herford (reserve)

1 September 2025, kidney disease

Patrick Tietze (42) (reserve)

1 September 2025, Suicide

Hans Joachim Kind

Early September, natural causes

https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

No evidence of foul play

Police and authorities have explicitly ruled out suspicious circumstances in all six cases

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd?utm_source=chatgpt.com

The extreme improbability

Factors:

Tight time frame of the two waves

Restricted pool of all candidates

Age-specific probability of death
Above-average health of political candidates.

Tight geographical cluster

German economist, Stefan Homburg

“statistically virtually impossible”

https://x.com/i/grok/share/xfRCpWaGBsPa1W8R9vs81KRV2?utm_source=chatgpt.com

AfD deputy leader (MP)

Stephan Brandner “statistically striking and difficult to explain at the moment”.

“I’ve never heard of politicians from a party dying in such a short period of time before an election,”

Statistical anomaly noted

The cluster of six deaths within a short period,

concentrated on one party,

The probability of at least four deaths is approximately 0,0000127 or 0,00127% (1 in 78.740)

https://lab-news.de/en/haeufung-von-afd-todesfaellen-statistisch-extrem-unwahrscheinlich/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Wave 1 (July / early August)

Opposition candidates

FDP, UWG, Party for Animal Protection, Free Voters, Voter Group SG Zukunft.

Observation: 5 deaths in approx. 3 weeks.

Wave 2 (mid/late August to 1 September)

Almost exclusively AfD – Seitz, Klinger, Berendes, Lange, Herford, Tietze

(plus Uwe Philippsen / list “Volksabstimmung”).

Observation: 7 deaths in approx. 3 weeks.

G Frei News analysis

https://gfrei.news/author/gfrei123/

Final result after the healthy-candidate effect

Wave 1 (opposition, ≥ 5):
1 : 5,809

Wave 2 (AfD, ≥ 6):
1 : 247,351

Two waves in sequence:

1 : 1,437,176,086

Short form: ≈ 1 : 1.44 billion

This means the double cluster clearly lies in the billion range of improbability. That precisely explains why comparable cases (e.g., “four deaths before an election”) are virtually never documented historically.

These deaths have disrupted the electoral process, invalidating ballots in affected districts and requiring reprints and new nominations.
The 2024 United Kingdom general election, Thursday, 4 July 2024

Tommy Cawkwell, an RNLI volunteer, Reform UK died after being selected candidate for York Central

“passed away suddenly”, age 41, stroke

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6529851/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Men who died from stroke, average age at death, 79 years

Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, November 5, 2024,

Jennifer Pace, Republican, age 59, cardiovascular disease