Daily Update Podcast for Monday September 15, 2025

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!

Market Summary for Friday, September 12, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, September 15, 2025:
Overall Performance:
A quiet, low-conviction session with the S&P 500 closing virtually unchanged, down just 0.05% on above-average volume. Prices opened flat, chopped around the unchanged line, peaked at intraday resistance of 6,600, then pulled back slightly. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 set new all-time highs, driven by mega-cap strength (e.g., Apple up 1.76%, Tesla up 7.3%), which offset broader weakness. Utilities and discretionary sectors provided support. Small- and mid-caps lagged, with growth outperforming value in large caps.
Key Indicators:
Trends: Positive across short-, intermediate-, and long-term timeframes for major indices. Short-term conviction strengthening (e.g., StochRSI, Williams %R, CCI positive/extreme), but extremes in RSI(9) and distance from 20-period MA signal potential overextension. Intermediate-term remains in +3 standard deviation channel; long-term shows vulnerability above the 200-day SMA (now above 10%, historically preceding pullbacks when over 10%).
Volume & Breadth: Above-average volume encouraging, but breadth mixed—advance-decline lines sleepy/negative, new highs flat, Chaikin Money Flow turning negative. NYSE McClellan Oscillator positive but declining.
Sentiment & Volatility: Neutral sentiment (not euphoric, beneficial for upside) despite highs; VIX below 20 but ticking up with its volatility measure, hinting at weekend positioning. Equity put/call ratio declining; risk-on ratios (high beta/low beta) breaking out positively. Individual investors bearish (contrarian bullish signal). Consumer sentiment dropped to 55.4 (from 59.2 expected), signaling pessimism.
Sectors & Ratios: Growth/value ratios improving (large-cap growth strong); discretionary/staples positive; semis broke to new highs. Financials underperforming S&P; staples/tech ratio declining (bullish).
Economic & Broader Context:
Interest rates rose (10-year yield to 4.06% from 4.01%, still low); dollar up but in downtrend. Gold hit new inflation-adjusted highs; M2 liquidity growth could fuel inflation. Share buybacks announced at high levels (confidence signal, though not always executed). Profit margins improving, avoiding recessionary levels. Bull market nears 3 years old, comparable to prior cycles. Government shutdowns historically positive for stocks post-event (short-term drama, long-term resilience).
Valuations: U.S. stocks overvalued vs. global peers; earnings growth gap widens (MAG7 leading).
Upcoming Week (September 15-19):
Anticipation builds for Fed's Wednesday 2 PM ET decision—market up on rate-cut rumors ("buy the rumor, sell the news" risk). Key data: Monday—Empire State Manufacturing; Tuesday—Retail Sales, Industrial Production; Thursday—Jobless Claims. No Friday reports. Seasonality neutral-to-positive early week, but mid-to-late September historically weak (worst half-month since 1950; S&P avg. -0.7%). Options expiration adds slight positive tilt. Geopolitics no direct impact.
Outlook:
Positive bias intact (short/intermediate momentum improving, long-term healthy), treating 6,600 as overhead resistance until proven support. Watch for pullbacks to 20/50-period MAs; vulnerability grows if more than 10% above the 200-day SMA. Broader internals (e.g., Parabolic SAR, Vortex, momentum oscillators) support upside, but mixed breadth and sentiment extremes warrant caution. Healthy chart patterns suggest normal profit-taking over major reversal.