Weekly Update for September 15-19, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary for September 8-12, 2025:
Outlook for September 15-19, 2025:
Market Performance:
The stock market showed resilience despite geopolitical and domestic events, with no significant direct impact, at least yet.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 1.59% with above-average trading volume, indicating healthier participation.
Major indices performed well: Dow (+1%), S&P 500 (+1.6%), NASDAQ (+2%), and NASDAQ 100 set new all-time highs. Small and mid-caps lagged, underperforming.
Key Drivers:
Positive Sentiment and Trends: Market sentiment remains neutral, which could favor further gains as skepticism persists. Daily and intermediate-term trends are positive, though weekly charts show no strong trend yet.
Federal Reserve Expectations: Anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming week (93.4% market probability) and another in October (79% probability) is driving optimism. Lower interest rates (10-year yield at 4.06%) and a weaker dollar are supporting stock gains.
Sector Performance: Tech and communication sectors led, with mega-cap stocks including Oracle (+25.5%), Tesla (+12.9%), and Broadcom (+7.5%) driving indices higher. Semiconductors are improving but not leading. Defensive sectors (healthcare, staples) remain weak year-to-date.
Economic Data: CPI met expectations, PPI was slightly stronger, and initial jobless claims rose, reinforcing rate-cut expectations. The economy shows slight weakness, but not collapse, suggesting rate cuts aim to stimulate growth.
Concerns and Risks:
Geopolitical issues (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) could eventually impact markets.
Seasonality data indicates the last two weeks of September are historically weak (negative returns 60% of the time since 1950).
Small and mid-caps are underperforming, and some technical indicators (e.g., McClellan Oscillator) showing slight weakness.
Technical Outlook:
The S&P 500 is above key pivot points and holding gains, with a series of higher highs and lows. However, it’s near the upper trend channel, and some indicators (e.g., vortex, money flow) suggest potential exhaustion.
Smart money indicators remain positive, but sentiment is neutral despite new highs, indicating room for further upside if fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks in.
Gold and bonds are in uptrends, while the dollar remains weak, supporting equities. Commodities show inflationary potential but aren’t significantly impacting markets yet.
Looking Ahead (September 15-19):
Watch for a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction to the Fed’s rate cut announcement.
Seasonality suggests caution due to September’s historical weakness.
Monitor small and mid-caps for follow-through and broader market participation to confirm the rally’s strength.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive, driven by tech leadership, rate-cut expectations, and favorable conditions (lower yields, weaker dollar). However, historical seasonality, geopolitical risks, and potential profit-taking warrant caution. The context of the Fed’s rate cuts (stimulative vs. reactive to economic weakness) will be critical for future performance.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!