Deep Dive Update for Monday September 15, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

The video is a weekly update where various financial charts are analyzed to assess market trends, focusing on the VIX (volatility index), S&P 500, and other indices. The video aims to provide a broader context for market trends, with many charts used only when they signal significant changes.
Key points include:
1. VIX Analysis: The VIX has been below 20 for an extended period, indicating low volatility. The 50-period moving average of the VIX also remains under 20, suggesting a stable, upward market trend. Momentum (MACD) and speed (RSI) indicators show no significant movement, so related charts are not emphasized unless extreme readings occur (e.g., RSI above 70 or below 30).
2. Market Correlations:
The VIX-S&P 500 correlation is monitored but currently shows no major signals unless it crosses a critical threshold (dashed line).
The VIX-to-bond volatility (MOVE index) ratio is declining, which is positive as the S&P rises.
The SKU index, indicating expected market moves, has dropped out of the caution zone, suggesting no immediate large market swings.
3. Large vs. Small Caps: The Russell 1000 (large caps) to Russell 2000 (small caps) ratio shows large caps outperforming recently, though small caps briefly outperformed last week. This trend has seen false starts over recent years.
4. Market Performance:
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ set all-time highs recently, with the NASDAQ composite is outperforming the NASDAQ 100. Technical scores rank the NASDAQ composite highest (88.4), followed by NASDAQ 100 (82.6), small caps (76.1), S&P 500 (72.9), mid-caps (52.5), and Dow (50.9, weakest despite hitting highs).
Percentage gains from major lows (October 2022, October 2023, April 2025) are tracked, with a longer-term oscillator showing a slight decline but still positive.
5. Momentum and Sector Ratios:
Momentum stocks spiked but are now range-bound.
U.S. stocks outperforming international stocks, which the ratio is range-bound.
Growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and regional banks showing improvement relative to the broader financial sector.
6. Technical Indicators:
Short-, intermediate-, and long-term moving averages (rainbow charts) show positive trends, with prices above all lines.
The Connors RSI and other momentum indicators are neutral, not showing extreme readings.
The Ichimoku cloud and advance-decline ratios confirm a positive trend.
7. Other Observations:
Gold is outperforming the S&P 500 this last week.
Emerging markets showing improvement compared to developed markets.
Inflation concerns are mixed, with some bond-related charts suggesting low worry, while others show slight upticks.
Retail and discretionary sectors showing slight improvement, but semiconductors, transports, and home builders lack strong leadership.
The S&P 500 remains offensive (bullish) rather than defensive, with no immediate concerns, though monitor for potential pullbacks or corrections (3-5% normal, 10% correction, 20% bear market).

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10dYHYfMTyICQAq6MfvuYlXSG_AnAVBqX/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!