S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday September 17, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Tuesday, September 16, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 hit an all-time intraday high at the open but closed slightly down by 0.13%, showing apprehension ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement.
Trading volume was below average, reflecting a cautious market stance.
The S&P, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 set intraday highs but ended lower, with the market fixated on the Fed’s expected 25 basis point rate cut and their accompanying statement.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 opened above the R1 pivot point (6623) but declined below the unchanged level to the daily pivot (6612) and S1 (6605), finding support at 6600.
Prices are above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, indicating positive trends across short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.
Short-term indicators (e.g., StochRSI, Williams%R, CCI charts) show extreme positive conviction, though some are declining. Some Intermediate-term indicators remain overbought, with the market 10% above the 200-day simple moving average, signaling potential for a pullback.
Economic Indicators:
Retail sales rose 0.6% (double expectations), indicating economic strength. Core retail sales (ex-autos) increased 0.7%.
Industrial production rose 0.1% (vs. expected 0%), with capacity utilization steady at 77.4% (below the 80% full capacity mark).
Import prices up 0.3%, export prices up 0.3%, and business inventories up 0.2% as expected.
NAHB Housing Market Index at 32, slightly below expectations of 33, reflecting high housing costs and interest rate pressures.
Market Sentiment and Trends:
Sentiment remains positive but not euphoric, suggesting room for upside before overheating.
The dollar weakened, and the 10-year yield was stable at 4.03%. Gold prices hit a record high in real terms, signaling some market fear.
Growth stocks underperformed value stocks, with discretionary sectors showing strength compared to staples. Energy and healthcare were positive, while utilities, communication, and tech saw declines.
Fed and Policy Focus:
The markets anticipate a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with focus on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and comments on employment weakness.
Upcoming Fed meetings in October and December are also in focus for potential further rate cuts.
Internal Weakness:
Advance-decline ratios and smart money indicators (e.g., McClellan Oscillator, Chaiken Money Flow) show internal weakness despite the market’s upward trend.
Fewer stocks are above their 20-period moving averages, and new highs are tapering off, indicating potential cracks in market breadth.
Looking Ahead (Wednesday, September 17):
The FOMC announcement at 2 p.m. ET will be critical, with markets focused on the Fed’s tone and projections.
Economic reports include MBA Mortgage Applications, housing starts, and building permits.
Seasonality for mid-September is historically weak, with the second half of the month being the worst-performing period since 1950.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive across all timeframes but shows signs of overextension, particularly being 10% above the 200-day moving average.
Short-term conviction is strong, but intermediate-term indicators are mixed, with internal weaknesses emerging.
The Fed’s announcement will likely drive near-term market direction, with potential support at the 20-period moving averages if a decline occurs.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!