Daily Update Podcast for Friday September 19, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Thursday, September 18, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, September 19, 2025:
Market Performance on Thursday, September 18:
Major Indexes at All-Time Highs: The Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 hit all-time highs. The S&P 600 small-cap index, however, has not yet reached a new high, indicating some divergence.
Market Dynamics: Despite the highs, internal market strength (e.g., within the S&P 500) is weaker than expected, with indicators such as the advance-decline line and Chaiken Money Flow showing lackluster conviction. Volume was above average, but daily gains were modest at 0.48%.
Sector Performance: Technology, particularly mega-caps and semiconductors, led the advance, with broad-based participation. Growth outperformed value across large, mid, and small caps. Discretionary stocks held up better than staples, a positive sign for market sentiment.
Economic Data:
Jobless claims dropped to 231,000 (from 264,000), better than expected, easing labor market concerns.
Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 23.2 (vs. expected 3), with higher orders and lower prices paid, signaling growth without inflation.
Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.5%, raising some concerns about future economic activity, though coincident indicators remain positive.
Interest Rates and Dollar: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.1%, holding above the 4% support level. The dollar was up slightly but remains in a downtrend, supporting equity gains.
Gold and Housing: Gold surged 120% over three years, with increased ETF and speculative flows. Housing permits declined, a potential recession signal, though not yet widely reflected in market sentiment.
Market Indicators:
Positive Signals: Short-term indicators (e.g., Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, CCI) show bullish conviction. Momentum is positive across short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes. The NYSE advance-decline line hit an all-time high, and volume-based indicators are stronger than price-based ones.
Concerns: Negative divergences in smart money indicators (e.g., Chaikin Money Flow, McClellan Oscillator) and the S&P advance-decline line not confirming the index’s highs. The market is overextended, trading more than 10% above the 200-day moving average, a historical caution zone.
Sentiment: Investor sentiment is positive but not euphoric, suggesting room for further upside before upside capitulation. Low retail investor confidence could fuel additional gains if they start chasing the rally.
Seasonality and Technicals:
Seasonal Weakness: Late September is historically the weakest period for markets (since 1950), though this weakness has not materialized in 2025 so far.
Pivot Points: The S&P 500 opened at 6,625, climbed above R1 (6,633), but closed slightly below it at 6,632 after hitting an intraday high near 6,650. Pivot points were wide due to Wednesday’s volatility post-Fed announcement.
Options Expiration: Friday, September 19, is an options expiration day, which can lead to volatility. Historical daily data suggests is negative but positive for the week.
Outlook for Friday, September 19:
Market Bias: Positive across all timeframes, with the S&P 500 above key resistance (now potential support). A close above R1 (6,468) would maintain bullish momentum. A 0.72% cushion exists for an up week.
Key Levels: Watch the 20-period moving average for potential support if the market pulls back. Resistance lies near 6,650 (gamma exposure level). The 10% distance above the 200-day moving average warrants caution.
Catalysts: No major economic reports are due, so geopolitical events or market internals (e.g., option activity) could drive movement. Seasonality remains a concern, but historical weakness has not yet appeared.
Expectations: A quiet session is possible due to the lack of economic catalysts, though options expiration could spark volatility.
Additional Notes:
The market anticipates further Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025, with Goldman Sachs projecting a dovish path to 3–3.25% by 2026.
Valuations remain elevated, but this has been true for years without triggering a major decline.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains bullish on all-time highs across major indexes, but internal weaknesses and historical seasonality suggest caution. Friday’s session could volatile due to options expiration, with no major economic data to drive direction. Keep an eye on technical levels and sentiment shifts for signs of either continued strength or a potential pullback.