Nasdaq records near critical resistance! More to go or crash?

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Strong economic data suggest the soft landing scenario remains intact. Manufacturing strength, combined with improving employment data, appears to provide support. The Fed's dovish pivot also offers liquidity tailwinds, while the Nvidia-Intel partnership signals continued investment in US stocks.

But is the market reading the signals?

Strong employment data could actually be bearish for equities since it reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut. The Fed's dot plot already shows fewer 2026 cuts (only one instead of three) with higher growth and (slightly higher) inflation projections. The Nvidia-Intel deal also excludes Intel's struggling foundry business, a core problem for the company.

Technicals are not too promising either. Multiple resistance factors converge just a tad higher if not at current levels:
Long-term trendline from November 2021
138% Fibonacci level
Triangle pattern measured move completion
100% Fibonacci expansion target

Indicators flash warnings too:
RSI second divergence since May (price up, momentum flat)
Volume oscillator 13% below zero - lack of institutional buying
Missing third-wave volume surge - typical bull pattern absent
Fifth-wave characteristics suggesting impulse completion

As we trade in the historically worst month for equities, where the NASDAQ typically underperforms the S&P 500 during September selloffs, a high-probability short setup could be underway:

Entry: 24,700-24,750 area (resistance test)
Stop: Above 25,000 (avoid false breakout)
Targets: 23,700 → 22,730 → 22,200
Risk-Reward: Approximately 2.6:1 to first major support

Prefer a 5-wave decline if bear case confirms, followed by a 3-wave up, then continuation lower.

Watch 24,500 as it appears to be a decision point where multiple technical and fundamental factors converge.

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