Weekly Update for September 22-26, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary (September 15-19, 2025)
Outlook for September 22-26, 2025
Market Performance:
Major indexes (S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000) hit all-time highs, with the S&P 600 small-cap index lagging.
Weekly gains: S&P 500 (+1.2%), NASDAQ (+2.2%), Dow (+1%), small caps (+2%).
Volume was above average, particularly on Friday due to options expiration.
Market Conditions:
Overbought signals: S&P 500 is 11% above its 200-day moving average, indicating potential for a pullback (3-10%).
Sentiment is positive but not exuberant; individual investors remain net bearish, suggesting room for further upside.
Negative seasonality (late September) and post-options expiration week historically lean bearish, though August/September weakness hasn’t materialized.
Economic and Fed Developments:
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% (to 4-4.25%), as expected, with markets anticipating further cuts in October (91.7% probability) and December (78.6% probability).
Economic data mixed: strong retail sales and industrial production, but declining housing starts and permits. Initial jobless claims dropped, and the Philadelphia Fed Index was robust (23.2).
Sector Performance:
Growth sectors outperformed: Communication (+3.4%), Tech (+2%), Discretionary (+1.5%).
Defensive sectors (Staples, Real Estate) underperformed, signaling a risk-on market.
Small caps (Russell 2000) showed increased risk appetite.
Key Indicators:
10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.14% after testing 4%, a potential concern if it continues climbing.
U.S. dollar remains in a downtrend but saw a slight bounce.
Inflation (CPI) stable but above the Fed’s 2% target; core PCE report upcoming.
Gold (+41% YTD) and stocks outperforming other assets; the dollar was the weakest.
Technical Analysis:
Positive trends on daily charts, but weekly charts show no strong trend (ADX not rising).
Volume outpacing price, a potentially bullish sign, though some negative divergences (e.g., Chaiken Oscillator, advance-decline line).
RSI and other momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions in the short term.
Looking Ahead (September 22-26):
Seasonality remains negative for late September, with historical data showing weak performance.
Key levels to watch: S&P 500 support at 6468 (former resistance). A break below could signal a deeper pullback.
Monitor 10-year yields, the dollar, and upcoming core PCE inflation data for impacts on market direction.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains bullish with record highs, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and strong economic data. However, overbought conditions, rising yields, and seasonal weakness suggest caution for a potential pullback, though sentiment indicates room for further gains before exhaustion.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!