Kremlin can no longer withstand Ukraine_s blows, Russians are forced to negotiate

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Ukraine has been using long-range drones and missiles to attack key Russian energy sectors, including oil terminals and refineries, in an attempt to put financial pressure on the Kremlin and limit funding for its military machine. Moscow’s oil and gas sector is estimated to finance up to 20% of the country’s GDP on average.
While Ukraine began targeting energy infrastructure much earlier in the conflict, the attacks have intensified in recent weeks, causing gas shortages and skyrocketing prices in Russia. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign has been a bright spot for Kyiv in what has otherwise been a largely attritional war of attrition. It has also used long-range drones and missiles to attack key Russian military facilities, including air bases, weapons factories, and ammunition depots.
Forbes reports that Ukraine is strengthening its position during the war by launching a series of strategic strikes on Russian oil refineries. These attacks not only reduce Moscow’s revenues, but also create additional opportunities for Ukraine to put pressure on the Kremlin during potential peace talks.

Over the summer, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked more than a dozen oil refineries across Russia. An estimated 17% of Russia’s refining capacity – about 1.1 million barrels per day – was reportedly knocked out in August.

The Ryazan and Novokuybyshev refineries were attacked, shutting down key distillation units, and the Volgograd refinery in the south of the country completely shut down. Many of the facilities have been attacked repeatedly.

Ukraine uses domestically-developed Lyuty strike drones, which have been upgraded to a range of over 2,000 km and equipped with artificial intelligence systems. This allows it to operate independently of foreign partners and overcome Russian electronic warfare systems. The attacks have caused fuel shortages and record gasoline prices in Russia. Moscow has been forced to restrict exports, which has hit oil revenues and forced foreign customers to look for alternative suppliers.
At the same time, the Kremlin is spending significant resources to repair damaged facilities and strengthen their defenses. This diverts resources from military needs.

Despite the huge costs of the summer offensive, Russian forces have achieved minimal results, suffering significant losses in equipment and personnel. Ukrainian FPV drones destroy armored vehicles, and fortified Ukrainian positions and river obstacles limit their advance.

Russian missile and drone campaigns have also failed to lead to a breakthrough: modernized Shaheds have become more expensive, but they continue to be shot down en masse by Ukrainian air defenses.

Analysts believe that Russia’s financial predicament is strengthening Ukraine’s position: Kremlin revenues are falling; military spending is rising; strategic goals are being achieved minimally.

“This situation is likely to force Russian leaders to return to the negotiating table due to growing domestic discontent combined with international pressure. If Ukraine manages to maintain this initiative, which undermines Russia’s military power and economic stability, it will enter these negotiations with a strong hand,” the publication writes.