Michael Oliver: A Stock Market Tombstone Event

During the podcast, host Tom Bodrovics and guest Michael Oliver, from Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA), discussed various market dynamics and trends. Oliver emphasized that the S&P 500 is at the top of a major bubble, which has been evident since late 2024 or early 2025. He noted that the recent surge in the S&P, despite making new highs, is a counter-trend rally within a broken long-term uptrend. Oliver highlighted that historical patterns, such as those seen in 2000 and 2007, suggest that the current market structure is similar to past market tops.

Oliver also discussed the underperformance of key sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials, which together make up a significant portion of the market. He contrasted this with the strong performance of tech sectors, particularly information technology and communication services, which have driven the recent market rally. This narrow leadership, Oliver argued, is a sign of market weakness and potential rollover.

The discussion also touches on the bond market, particularly the T-bond market, which Oliver described as being in a critical state. He noted that the market has not behaved as an alternative to stocks, as it typically would, and that this anomaly could signal broader market issues. Oliver also discussed the potential for a bond vigilante resurgence if the market structure breaks.

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Oliver expressed concern about Bitcoin's momentum structure, which he believes is at risk of breaking. He noted that Bitcoin's price action has been closely correlated with the NASDAQ 100, and a breakdown in Bitcoin could potentially drag down the NASDAQ as well. In contrast, Oliver sees gold and silver as having significant upside potential, with silver poised for a dramatic breakout. He also mentioned that silver miners are outperforming gold miners and could see substantial gains in the near future. Oliver concluded by discussing the potential for a return to a gold-backed currency, driven by global trends and the failure of central bank policies. He sees gold as a prime beneficiary of the current market dynamics and expects rapid and significant changes in the near future.

Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Email: mailto:[email protected]

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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.