Weekly Update for September 29 October 3, 2025

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Market Update Summary (September 22-26, 2025)
Market Performance Overview:
The S&P 500 remained broadly positive in the long term but showed mixed signals in the short term.
For the week, major indexes saw slight declines: Dow (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-0.3%), NASDAQ (-0.7%), with small caps also weakening.
Friday’s bounce was on below-average volume, indicating low conviction, though the market held above key technical levels such as the 20-period moving average.
Key Observations:
Technical Indicators: Short-term indicators are neutral, lacking strong direction after drifting from positive to slightly negative. Weekly charts remain positive, with no major shift to a defensive market stance.
Pullbacks and Support: Thursday’s dip tested the daily 20-period exponential moving average, followed by a recovery. Gaps in indexes were filled, but it’s unclear if this signals further upside or a potential reversal.
Economic Factors: Stronger-than-expected economic data (e.g., GDP near 4%, resilient labor market) raised concerns about the Federal Reserve potentially pausing rate cuts, despite an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on October 29.
Interest Rates and Dollar: The 10-year yield rose to 4.19%, up from 4% post-Fed rate cut, and the dollar showed a short-term uptrend, both potentially pressuring stocks.
Geopolitical and Policy Risks: New tariff announcements, Middle East tensions, and a possible government shutdown added uncertainty, though the market largely ignored these.
Sector Performance: Energy and utilities led, while materials, tech, and healthcare lagged. Tech remains strong long-term (93.4 score), followed by communication and discretionary sectors. Defensive sectors (staples, healthcare) underperformed, signaling growth-driven market sentiment.
Sentiment and Volatility: The VIX showed no significant fear, and sentiment ticked to neutral from positive. The bullish percent index showed a negative divergence, hinting at potential weakness.
Looking Ahead (September 29 - October 3):
Seasonality: September’s historical weakness (worst half-month since 1950) hasn’t fully materialized, but two trading days remain which may include window dressing by money managers. October may see volatility with earnings season.
Key Data: The employment situation report on Friday will be critical, potentially influencing Fed rate cut expectations.
Market Outlook: While near record highs, the market faces valuation concerns, shifting Fed expectations, and policy risks. A pullback is possible but likely normal, not a major trend reversal. Small caps may weaken if rate cut expectations fade.
Conclusion: The market remains positive long-term but vulnerable short-term due to economic strength, rising yields, and geopolitical noise. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and Fed commentary for clues on rate cuts and market direction.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!