America Under Occupation: Truth, Power, & Imperial Decline | Jonathan Kirshner

Episode 435 is the eighth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with leading realist scholar Jonathan Kirshner about how eroding cultural norms, weakened political guardrails, deepening polarization, and the collapse of shared narratives and belief structures are leading to a break-down in the American-led order, paving the way for a new moneyed elite to seize power in Washington.

Their discussion begins with a deep dive into the realist tradition: its origins, how it differs from other ideological schools, its various interpretations, and why classical realists grant primacy to uncertainty and the inherently unpredictable nature of world events.

They explore what it means for states to define and pursue their national interests at a time when the American-led world order is fragmenting and deep domestic polarization is weakening the institutional checks and balances that once constrained presidential power.

Jonathan also educates the audience on the parallels between the United States today and France in the 1930s—politically fractured, inwardly focused, and increasingly unable to act with purpose on the world stage—and why Kirshner believes the situation may now be closer to France in the 1940s, marked by a willingness to collaborate with the occupying forces of a new plutocracy.

Grant, Demetri, and Jonathan also grapple with how the politics of scapegoating, the collapse of shared narratives, and the deliberate erosion of truth claims are undermining the foundations of participatory democracy. Jonathan explains how this epistemic breakdown accelerates America’s imperial collapse, undermining its political influence abroad, weakening its alliances, and threatening the long-term stability of the dollar-based global financial system.

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00:00 Introduction06:38 Jonathan Kirschner on Realism
07:31 Defining National Interests
13:24 Challenges in Modern International Relations
20:06 US Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy
41:41 Trump Administration's Foreign Policy
57:19 Historical Comparisons and Reflections
59:44 Historical Comparisons: Pre-WWII France and Modern America
01:01:46 Charismatic Leadership and Authoritarian Followership
01:05:18 The Role of Congress and Judicial Permissiveness
01:06:49 The Occupation Analogy: France in the 1940s
01:12:33 The Erosion of American Civic Nationalism
01:14:51 The Limits of Democracy and Moral Character
01:16:05 Trump Administration Scandals and the MAGA Base
01:20:15 Sanctioning Russian Central Bank Assets
01:25:16 Conspiracy Theories and Collective Mythmaking
01:31:22 Undermining Truth Claims and Authoritarianism
01:33:30 Realism in a Time of Flux
01:42:49 Final Thoughts

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas