Daily Update Podcast for Thursday October 2, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, October 1, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday October 1, 2025:
Major Indexes Performance: The Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, while mid-caps and small-caps underperformed.
Market Movement: The S&P 500 opened lower, found support at S1 (6656), climbed above the daily pivot (6674), and closed near the intraday high, up 0.34% on above-average volume. It broke above the 6700 resistance level, closing slightly off the high.
Economic Data:
ADP Employment Change: Reported a decline of 32,000 jobs (expectations were +40,000), with a prior report revised significantly downward from +54,000 to -3,000.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Dropped 12.7% for the week, compared to a 0.6% increase previously.
ISM Manufacturing: Recorded at 49.1, slightly below the expected 49.2 but up from 48.7, indicating slight contraction in manufacturing.
Global Manufacturing: Remained at 52, signaling expansion.
Market Sentiment and Indicators:
Interest rates and the dollar weakened, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11% from 4.15%.
Positive across short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes, with the parabolic SAR turning positive (intermediate-term indicator).
Short-term indicators (e.g., Williams %R, CCI, stochastics) show positive conviction, though RSI and Chaikin oscillator suggest potential overextension.
Sentiment remains cautious, with many investors skeptical of the rally, potentially fueling further gains as they join the market.
Government Shutdown: Minimal market impact, historically typical, with investors treating dips as buying opportunities.
Sector Performance: Healthcare led with a 3% gain, followed by tech and discretionary. Communication services lagged, while financials underperforming the S&P 500.
Key Stocks: Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon saw gains; Meta declined significantly; financials and staples showed weakness.
Technical Notes:
The S&P 500 is above the 6700 resistance, with potential support at this level if a pullback occurs. Next resistance is around 6750.
Volume led price, a positive sign, though some indicators (e.g., advance-decline line, growth-to-value ratio) showed mixed signals.
Volatility (VIX) remains low, but the VIX-to-S&P correlation indicates rising fear not fully reflected in the VIX.
Outlook for Thursday, October 2, 2025:
Key Data: Jobless claims and factory orders may be released, though government shutdown could delay reports. Employment situation and ISM services reports on Friday are uncertain.
Geopolitical/Domestic Context: Ongoing Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine escalation, and U.S. government shutdown not significantly impacting markets yet.
Seasonality: October 2 historically shows neutral to negative performance for the S&P and NASDAQ, though post-election year trends suggest positive seasonality in early October.
Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 is above support. Short-term positive conviction is building, but intermediate-term indicators lack strong confirmation. Watch for pullbacks to the 20-period moving average and monitor the 200-day moving average (11.4% above current levels) for overextension risks.
Conclusion:
The SPX remains bullish, supported by economic weakness potentially reinforcing expectations of a late-October rate cut. However, overextended indicators and mixed momentum suggest caution, with key levels to watch at 6700 (support) and 6750-6805 (resistance).