The Wire - October 10, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 10, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EARTHQUAKES STRIKE PHILIPPINES. INDIA WELCOMES TALIBAN DELEGATION, RE-ESTABLISHES RELATIONS WITH AFGHANISTAN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW BLANKET TARIFF OF 100% ON CHINESE GOODS.//

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-International Events-

Philippines: Yesterday evening an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.4 struck just off the coast of the southern province of Davao Oriental. Shortly after the first, a second 6.9 magnitude earthquake was reported in the same area, along with several aftershocks from both quakes. Damage surveys are still ongoing, and so far 6x fatalities have been reported as a result of these earthquakes.

Southern Asia: Following the Pakistani airstrikes in the city of Kabul yesterday, Taliban leadership has signaled a desire to increase their relations with India. The Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in India this morning for a pre-arranged diplomatic visit. India's Foreign Minister received the Taliban, and stated that India will be re-opening their embassy in Afghanistan to establish relations with the new Taliban government.

Analyst Comment: Interesting relationships are forming on the subcontinent. India will ally with anyone who hates Pakistan, so cozying up to the Taliban makes sense from their perspective, especially since India does not share a land border with Afghanistan. However this may be an ill advised move in the long run, considering that the United States is not yet interested in restoring relations with the Taliban, and some of India's other trade partners might have a bone to pick with the Afghan government.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House announced a new tariff on most goods from China. Starting November 1st, a 100% tax will be applied on top of all other tariffs (which vary by type of goods).

Analyst Comment: Since the election, the roller coaster of tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China has been, in a word, insanity. Overall, it's challenging to judge who has come out on top, economically speaking. The White House came out swinging with the tariffs right after the election, while China has (in typical fashion) taken a more coy approach that has been slow to build. This latest conflagration is likely the result of China introducing export controls for precious metals and rare-earth materials such as lithium. President Trump has fired back by instituting this 100% tariff, and also introducing export controls on "critical software".

As a reminder, the White House still hasn't really clarified their position on the "600,000 Chinese student" scandal from last month, so if the United States remains committed to importing hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens into the exact career fields that are writing the software in the first place, it's extremely unlikely that export limitations on software will matter at all. Nevertheless, the trade war has kicked back up again so more economic turmoil will probably be the result in the short term.

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Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the peace agreement seems to be holding as much as can be expected so far. Yesterday the White House confirmed that American troops will be deployed to Israel to oversee the peace agreement. Officials have stated that no American troops will be deployed to Gaza, however troops will be directly involved in mitigating conflicts between Palestinian authorities and Israeli troops. Per the deal, roughly half of Gaza will remain in a state of "buffer zone" more or less under Israeli control and the IDF pulled back across the line of control yesterday afternoon. Various other Middle Eastern nations also have pledged to invest troops in the management of the peace agreement, most notably Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE, and various third-party nations (such as Turkey) have allowed aid to begin flowing into Gaza more directly.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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