Weekly Update for October 13-17, 2025

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Market Summary for October 6-10, 2025:
Outlook for October 13-17, 2025:
Weekly Performance (October 6-10):
The market saw gains Monday through Thursday, reaching all-time highs for the S&P and other indexes, but lacked strong positive conviction.
There was a fairly sharp sell-off on Friday, triggered by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions (tariff concerns and China's export controls on rare earth materials), led to a broad market decline, with the S&P down 2.43% for the week.
Most losses occurred on Friday, with above-average trading volume, erasing earlier gains.
Small caps were hit hardest (down 3.3%), followed by the Dow (2.7%), NASDAQ (2.5%), and S&P (2.4%).
Defensive sectors such as staples, utilities, and healthcare outperformed, while discretionary and energy weakened.
Key Market Observations:
Friday’s decline pushed the S&P 500 below its 20-day moving averages, raising questions about whether this is a short-term dip or the start of a larger pullback.
Market sentiment had been neutral, not exuberant, with individual investors showing skepticism despite recent highs. This was being taken as positive.
The VIX (volatility index) spiked above 20 (closing at 21.88), indicating rising fear after months of lower volatility.
Interest rates dropped on Friday as investors moved to bonds (a flight to safety), mirroring a similar move last spring.
Economic data (CPI, PPI, employment reports) is delayed due to the government shutdown, adding uncertainty.
Geopolitical factors, including Middle East peace talks, are being largely ignored by the markets, though trade war concerns resurfaced on Friday.
The markets are not currently worried about a recession, supported by positive economic indicators including GDP growth estimates.
Technical and Sector Analysis:
Support levels are converging across indexes (e.g., S&P, Dow at 50-day moving averages), which will be critical to watch for a potential bounce or further decline.
Tech remains strong (SCTR Score in the 90s) despite a 2.22 weekly loss, while utilities and communication sectors also held up. Discretionary weakened, and staples showed defensive strength.
Energy continues to underperform, with oil prices dropping to the high 50s.
Gold and silver hit all-time highs, and bonds rose in price as yields fell (10-year yield at 4.05%, still above the key 4.02% level).
Looking Ahead (October 13-17):
Monitor futures on Sunday evening (via investing.com) for initial market reactions.
Earnings season is approaching, with companies in a blackout period, potentially acting as a catalyst for market movement once the reports are released.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday (due to Columbus Day on Monday) may influence the markets, especially with limited economic data.
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on October 29 (96.2% probability) and December 10 (92% probability).
Seasonally, October is historically positive (up 59% of the time since 1964), with the first half stronger than the second.
Key levels to watch: S&P support at the daily 50-day moving average, VIX trends, and the dollar’s strength (a rising dollar could pressure stocks).
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 experienced its first significant pullback in months, driven by trade tensions and risk-off sentiment. While short-term indicators turned negative, the longer-term trend remains positive. Investors should watch support levels, earnings reports, and Fed statements for clues on whether this is a temporary dip or a more significant correction.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!