Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday October 14, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Monday, October 13, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday October 14, 2025:
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 had a strong day, recovering about half of Friday’s losses, with the S&P 500 up 1.56%, closing at the 6650 level.
The S&P Futures opened 1.25–1.5% higher on Sunday evening, setting the tone for Monday’s gap-up open at the daily pivot of 6622.
Prices fluctuated around 6650, with support at the daily pivot and resistance at the 20-period simple moving average. Volume was average, indicating limited conviction from "buy the dip" traders.
The S&P 500 remains short-term negative, as it closed near the 20-period exponential moving average but below the simple moving average, which is acting as resistance.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 broke below the 20-period moving averages on Friday, turning short-term trends negative. It’s now testing these levels as resistance.
Intermediate and long-term trends remain positive, supported by the 50-period moving averages and pivot points across major indexes (S&P, NASDAQ, Dow, and others).
The VIX dropped below 20 to 19.03, signaling reduced fear, but other volatility indicators (e.g., VIX of VIX, stock-to-bond volatility) suggest lingering caution.
Sentiment improved slightly (from 29 to 33), but remains negative. Momentum is mixed, with short-term weakness but long-term positivity.
Key indicators including the McClellan oscillator, bullish percent index, and momentum oscillators (e.g., MACD, PMO) remain negative in the short term, with some improvement but no reversal to positive.
Market Dynamics:
Growth sectors (tech, semiconductors, small caps, mid-caps) outperformed, with small cap growth up significantly. Defensive sectors such as staples lagged.
The Hindenburg Omen triggered an initial signal, but it’s unconfirmed until another spike occurs by November 7, 2025. A potential Zweig NYSE Breadth Thrust (positive signal) is also unconfirmed, requiring a surge by October 24, 2025.
External Factors:
Geopolitical developments, including the return of hostages in Israel and U.S.-China trade tension comments, had minimal market impact. Trump’s remarks and Treasury Secretary Besant’s optimism eased some trade war fears.
The bond market was closed for Columbus Day, leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.05%. The dollar’s uptrend could pressure stocks if it continues.
The government shutdown and upcoming earnings from major banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup) on Tuesday may influence market direction. Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday is also a focal point.
Outlook:
Short-term outlook remains negative until the market closes above the 20-period moving averages. Intermediate and long-term trends are positive, supported by the 50-period moving averages.
Seasonality suggests a positive bias for mid-October, but the second half of the month historically underperforms. Key economic reports (CPI, PPI, retail sales) are uncertain due to the government shutdown.
Watch for resistance at 6700 and support at 6600 on the S&P 500. Earnings and Powell’s comments could set the tone for Tuesday, October 14, 2025.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in a delicate state, with short-term weakness but longer-term strength. Unconfirmed signals (Hindenburg Omen and Zweig Breadth Thrust) add uncertainty, and external factors such as earnings and geopolitics will be critical in determining near-term direction.