Weekly Update for October 20-27, 2025

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Market Update Summary (October 13-17, 2025):
Market Performance:
S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow +1.6%, NASDAQ +2.1%, small caps +2.4%.
Positive week despite U.S.-China trade war concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Volume above average, particularly on options expiration Friday.
Trends and Technicals:
Short-term trend negative (below 20-day moving average), intermediate-term positive (above 50-day moving average).
Weekly trend weakening, non-confirmed, but still positive (green line above red line).
Mixed signals: long-term oscillators positive, intermediate-term showing weakness, short-term momentum improving slightly.
Sector Highlights:
Tech and AI stocks led, with growth outperforming value; semiconductors strong.
Financial sector flat due to regional bank struggles (credit quality, liquidity issues).
Utilities, real estate, and communication sectors up; healthcare and staples (defensive) also gained.
All sectors positive for the week, with tech leading, followed by utilities.
Economic Context:
Interest rates falling due to a flight to safety (stocks to bonds) amid trade war fears.
Gold rising as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, not inflation (stable, no new data due to government shutdown).
99% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on October 29; 94% chance for another in December.
Corporate earnings robust: 86% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, with projected earnings growth above 13%.
Concerns and Risks:
Regional bank weakness raises concerns about potential broader financial sector issues.
Defensive shifts (bonds, gold, healthcare) signal caution despite market gains.
Sentiment mixed: Investors Intelligence bull-bear ratio high, but VIX above 20 indicates rising fear.
Hindenburg-Omen signal pending confirmation, suggesting possible downside risk.
Looking Ahead (October 20-24):Second half of October historically less bullish but positive (1% return, up 59% since 1964).
Potential NYSE breadth thrust signal by October 24 could be bullish if confirmed.
Key levels to watch: S&P 500 support at 50-week moving average and the weekly R1 pivot point.
Takeaway:
The S&P 500 showed resilience with gains driven by tech, AI, and strong earnings, supported by expected Fed rate cuts. However, regional bank weakness, defensive asset shifts, and mixed technical signals highlight underlying risks. The broader uptrend persists, but caution is warranted due to geopolitical and financial sector concerns.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BGYhH9ipnItx--tj9wA-rsZdPfI2RRQi/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!