Daily Update Podcast for Thursday October 23, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, October 22, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, October 23, 2025:
Wednesday's Market Action:
Frustrating Session: The S&P 500 saw a pullback after building some positive momentum, closing down 0.53% at around 6,700. Despite the decline, it recaptured the 20-period simple moving average by the close, maintaining a positive short, intermediate, and long-term outlook based on moving averages.
Price Movement: The market opened lower, fell below the daily pivot (6,737), S1 (6,221), S2 (6,706), and S3 (6,676), but found support and rebounded above S3, closing at 6,700.
Volume and Sentiment: Volume remained above average, indicating participation. Sentiment ticked down to 26, nearing an extreme negative threshold (25).
Key Influences:
Geopolitical Concerns: Worries over U.S.-China trade tensions contributed to the downturn.
Earnings Reports: Previously positive earnings reactions turned negative.
Mega Caps and Tech: Underperformed, adding pressure to the market.
10-Year Yield: Continued to decline (3.95%), possibly driven by market dynamics rather than a flight to safety.
Economic Data: Limited due to the ongoing government shutdown. Mortgage applications fell 0.3%, less negative than the prior week’s 1.8% drop.
Sector Performance: Defensive sectors (energy, healthcare, staples, real estate) outperformed, while growth areas (discretionary, communication, tech, industrials) lagged.
Technical Indicators: Mixed signals with no strong conviction. The market is range-bound, with price action during occurring trading hours (seen as positive for decision-making). Stochastics and other indicators show neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Market Trends and Observations:
Positive Long-Term Outlook: Despite the down day, the market remains above key moving averages, with no significant breakdown.
Margin Debt and Leverage: Elevated margin debt levels indicate confidence but also risk if the market turns.
Gold and Dollar: Gold’s share of global reserves is rising, while the U.S. dollar index is in a downtrend, reflecting debasement concerns.
Earnings Season: About 85% of U.S. companies are beating earnings expectations, the highest in over four years, though valuations remain high (S&P P/E ratio at 23).
Outlook for Thursday, October 23, 2025:
Seasonality: Historically neutral to positive for the Dow, and positive for the S&P and NASDAQ. However, the week after options expiration is down 55% of the time since 1980.
Economic Data: Initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as existing home sales, may be delayed due to the government shutdown. CPI data, expected Friday, is also uncertain.
Technical Levels: Pivot points for Thursday will be key to watch. The market’s ability to hold above the 20- and 50-period moving averages will be critical for maintaining the positive bias.
Geopolitical Focus: U.S.-China trade tensions remain a key market driver, potentially capping upside momentum.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains positive but lacks conviction, with a weakening trend and mixed momentum. Defensive sectors are showing relative strength, while growth struggles. A breakout above resistance (e.g., Dow’s R1 level) or a failure to hold key moving averages could set the tone.
Key Takeaways:
The S&P 500 is in a choppy, range-bound phase with no clear direction, but positive in the bigger picture.
Defensive sectors are holding up better than growth in the short-term.
Geopolitical risks and earnings reactions are driving short-term sentiment.
The positive bias persists, but conviction is weak, and a Hindenburg Omen signal (unconfirmed) looms by November 7.