Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday October 29, 2025

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Market Summary: Monday, Oct 27, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025:
Overall Tone: Positive, with new all-time highs across major indexes, but gains mostly from overnight gaps; intraday action was sleepy/defensive. The markets like trade optimism, stable yields, and pre-earnings backdrop. Caution on overextension.
Monday's Action
Open: Gap higher: 6850 level on weekend trade news.
Close: Drifted slightly higher, closed at intraday high. S&P +1.23% (largest % move recently, but mostly gap-driven).
Volume: Above average (improvement from Friday's breakout on lighter volume).
Highs: New all-time highs in S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 (barely); S&P 600 small caps not at highs.
Standouts: Mega-caps & semis strong (+2.5–2.8%; SMH ETF new high). Tech, discretionary, communication led sectors. Materials only sector negative.
Yields: 10-yr unchanged at 4%. Dollar decline has helped stocks.
Internals: Advance/decline solid; new highs greater than new lows. Accumulation/distribution positive.
Key Positive Drivers
US-China Trade Framework: Agreement to avoid new tariffs; Trump-Xi to finalize Thursday.
Includes: U.S. soybean purchases, delay in rare-earth export controls, TikTok deal resolution.
No changes to U.S. chip export controls which helped semis surge.
Earnings Season: Positive corporate outlooks; big reports this week (Google, Meta post-close Wed; Amazon, Apple, Microsoft).
Fed (Wed): about 100% odds of 25 bps cut; focus on forward guidance (Dec cut also likely). Government shutdown limits data, but private sources help fill gaps.
Seasonality: Entering strong Nov–Dec period; Oct 28 historically positive (post-election year pop).
Technical Highlights
Positive indicators aligned (Stoch, RSI, CCI, %R extreme). Closed outside upper Bollinger Band (%B extreme warning).
CMB composite +3 SD; Chande Trend Meter extreme dark green. Boom indicator far from 20/50 MA.
Above all MAs; growth/value ratios strong (large/mid caps).
Breadth: A/D line new highs (price/volume); McClellan Osc/Summation improving.
Sentiment: Fear exiting (VIX under 20 declining; put/call dropping; high-beta above low-beta).
Valuation: S&P 23 (overvalued); NDX 29; equal-weight & mid/small caps fairer (15–16).
Risks/Overextension Flags:
Force Index, short-term RSI, %B, Chande Trend Meter, distance from MAs "extreme" but momentum intact.
Margin debt at highs (FINRA).
Gaps dominant on Fri-Mon, Thu-Fri; little intraday follow-through.
Swenlin Trading Osc declining.
Unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen (watch for spike by Nov 7).
Financials underperforming S&P (ratio down for months).
Tuesday Outlook
Bias: Positive on all timeframes (above 20/50/200 MAs).
Economic Data (if released despite shutdown): FHFA/Case-Shiller home prices, Consumer Confidence.
Seasonal: Mildly positive.
Risk: Overbought extremes could trigger pullback to Bollinger midline or MAs; monitor volume on any reversal.